Boxing · resolved market
Will Tyson Fury beat Oleksandr Usyk in Ring of Fire?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cf3bd5eac97f80f9d317952fde6cc8a623ad14846b2c49b611850af254335d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Boxingevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Boxing is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Boxing | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 50c | 14,089$7,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,033.17 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 52c | 6,614$3,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,433.59 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Yes | 52c | 5,532$2,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,890.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3980…724cbacked Yes | 55c | 5,443$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8add…cdc4backed Yes | 54c | 4,532$2,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,447.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 50c | 3,836$1,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,934.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 49c | 3,213$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.94 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 52c | 2,423$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.94 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 50c | 2,164$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 49c | 2,104$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…5b25backed Yes | 50c | 1,900$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdb…eadfbacked Yes | 51c | 1,625$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 51c | 1,600$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…a38cbacked No | 48c | 1,566$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yes | 51c | 1,340$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed Yes | 49c | 1,013$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked No | 51c | 834.32$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…8234backed Yes | 57c | 705.43$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…db84backed Yes | 52c | 697$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf07c…5a65backed Yes | 51c | 535.4$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e41…cf4dbacked No | 43c | 509.76$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc7…167ebacked Yes | 49c | 415.71$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bec…98febacked Yes | 50c | 358.06$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15f…650abacked Yes | 52c | 357.68$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…28d7backed Yes | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ef…3758backed Yes | 50c | 306$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d3…1aa3backed Yes | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02de…ecf5backed Yes | 51c | 243.8$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8273…7a51backed Yes | 49c | 224.49$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 48c | 223.71$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6adb…f176backed Yes | 50c | 218$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29fa…6090backed Yes | 49c | 214.29$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7453…d49ebacked No | 52c | 213.46$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 45c | 213.06$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d66…fc3bbacked Yes | 49c | 212.24$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb07…5e6fbacked Yes | 50c | 212$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8338…97c7backed No | 52c | 211.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…9ac1backed No | 52c | 207.69$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda8d…8bafbacked No | 53c | 205.66$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 48c | 204.83$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78dd…ac8fbacked Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa827…e147backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e1…895abacked No | 52c | 201.92$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…3e7abacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1027…4c27backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d1…4ff7backed Yes | 50c | 198$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x846a…44b7backed Yes | 54c | 197.31$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7b…9bb2backed No | 52c | 194.23$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4310…3b1cbacked No | 52c | 190.38$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c21…c82dbacked No | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e18…7df1backed Yes | 54c | 182.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13d…80f0backed Yes | 51c | 182.35$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa0…ecc1backed Yes | 56c | 178.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…4209backed Yes | 50c | 152$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Yes | 69c | 145.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f8…9d0cbacked No | 50c | 121.54$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…75bbbacked Yes | 54c | 109.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1e…ba37backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…7d35backed Yes | 49c | 90.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d6…f83fbacked No | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bee…de76backed Yes | 52c | 77.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc8…6ef6backed Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x039e…c5e0backed Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa40a…70f9backed Yes | 49c | 53.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74a4…42e1backed No | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x291b…a7afbacked Yes | 56c | 51.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe04a…1d54backed Yes | 52c | 47.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…7974backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf865…436bbacked Yes | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89fd…e8c5backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0e…3094backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…1907backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa219…10dbbacked Yes | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…8ae4backed No | 49c | 33.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b8…9fbdbacked Yes | 50c | 28.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…ba8abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…7e88backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ad…9786backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Boxing and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tyson Fury beat Oleksandr Usyk in Ring of Fire?this page
- Will Oleksandr Usyk beat Tyson Fury in Ring of Fire?Yes won
- Will Ring of Fire have no official winner?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.