UFC · resolved market
Katona vs. Almakhan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c3ba6dd76d083ae4061e29d5da984b8957f6d7d03418357b6d99e3cccdba5bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Almakhanof Katona, Almakhan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Katona | 46c | 9,205$4,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,204.29 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Almakhan | 58c | 6,852$3,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,854.12 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Katona | 44c | 5,746$2,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,510.91 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Katona | 42c | 5,500$2,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,310 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Katona | 42c | 5,006$2,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,096.9 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Almakhan | 55c | 4,712$2,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,113.18 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7d…cd1cbacked Almakhan | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc814…dc7cbacked Almakhan | 54c | 2,696$1,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Katona | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Katona | 42c | 2,278$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.94 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Katona | 43c | 2,254$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.23 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x982b…983cbacked Almakhan | 58c | 2,059$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.78 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Almakhan | 60c | 1,674$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.6 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Katona | 41c | 1,168$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.88 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Almakhan | 57c | 1,127$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.94 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Almakhan | 57c | 1,015$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.9 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf586…f614backed Katona | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Almakhan | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Almakhan | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Almakhan | 76c | 1,000$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Katona | 42c | 862.08$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.07 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Almakhan | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.07 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Almakhan | 54c | 858.28$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.56 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Almakhan | 58c | 800$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Katona | 45c | 777.78$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Katona | 44c | 714.99$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…59eabacked Almakhan | 59c | 678$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.98 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75aa…58f1backed Almakhan | 59c | 675.44$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.44 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Almakhan | 56c | 666$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.04 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Katona | 24c | 600$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51a7…530ebacked Almakhan | 60c | 553.58$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.43 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Almakhan | 56c | 484$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.96 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Katona | 42c | 476$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Almakhan | 65c | 350.99$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.43 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Almakhan | 54c | 303.61$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.64 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Almakhan | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Katona | 42c | 296.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.29 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Almakhan | 54c | 242.17$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.42 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Katona | 46c | 232.17$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Almakhan | 57c | 220$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…3600backed Almakhan | 56c | 212.79$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.63 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Almakhan | 59c | 199.89$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Katona | 42c | 187.04$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Katona | 44c | 177.75$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc258…4bf3backed Almakhan | 57c | 157.89$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Almakhan | 56c | 144.64$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7a…13abbacked Almakhan | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Almakhan | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Almakhan | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Katona | 41c | 82.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Katona | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Almakhan | 56c | 72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Almakhan | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Almakhan | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f7b3backed Katona | 44c | 57.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x128d…e2e7backed Katona | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked Almakhan | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Almakhan | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5508…4380backed Almakhan | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97da…d63bbacked Katona | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Katona | 45c | 49.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 168 | 51.8%87 W · 81 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eeb…dc1abacked Almakhan | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Katona | 40c | 39.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Katona | 43c | 39.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a56…695bbacked Almakhan | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b8…0646backed Almakhan | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…7de9backed Almakhan | 59c | 20.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Katona vs. Almakhanthis page
- Aldo vs. ZahabiZahabi won
- Andrade vs. JasudaviciusJasudavicius won
- Barriault vs. SilvaBarriault won
- Bukauskas vs. CutelabaBukauskas won
- Grasso vs. SilvaSilva won
- Malott vs. RadtkeMalott won
- Muhammad vs. Della MaddalenaMaddalena won
- Santos vs. LeeSantos won
- Shevchenko vs. FiorotShevchenko won
- Stirling vs. ErslanStirling won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.