TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Grasso vs. Silva

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Silvaof Grasso, Silva
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$268,074
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$287,550

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $268,074 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6717…0054backed Grasso33c60,418$19,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,937.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04cc…6213backed Silva67c60,418$40,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,937.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Silva68c21,541$14,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,812.7235253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Silva70c19,884$13,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,015.0522259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Grasso30c16,680$5,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,003.9910447.1%49 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Silva70c15,706$10,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,711.841855.6%10 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick68cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc814…dc7cbacked Grasso30c10,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Silva69c9,940$6,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,081.2814857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12af…ff78backed Silva67c9,348$6,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,125.8110542.9%45 W · 60 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x04a7…c0dfbacked Grasso34c7,266$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5003748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Grasso32c5,364$1,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,718.7811140.5%45 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Grasso31c5,259$1,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,630.3312541.6%52 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Grasso0c4,807$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4519418.6%36 W · 158 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Grasso31c4,516$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40017158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Grasso30c4,402$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.1933253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4762…ba70backed Silva71c4,200$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.84946.9%23 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Grasso30c4,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2003857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Grasso32c3,125$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00016951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Grasso31c3,101$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.1835826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Grasso30c3,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.9916247.5%77 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Grasso26c2,762$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.6614929.5%44 W · 105 L-15.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Grasso30c2,550$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7654833.3%16 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Grasso31c2,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.835539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7455…93adbacked Grasso25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50019531.8%62 W · 133 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf586…f614backed Silva70c1,922$1,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.461855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Grasso32c1,916$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.863740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Grasso28c1,871$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.9216049.4%79 W · 81 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Grasso28c1,774$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.8518453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Grasso30c1,679$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.942042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Grasso31c1,613$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50029848.7%145 W · 153 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Grasso27c1,602$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.1111540%46 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Grasso32c1,400$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.162343.5%10 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Grasso32c1,290$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.2653956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x659c…8dfcbacked Silva80c1,230$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.432774.1%20 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Silva71c1,080$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.539959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Silva71c964.85$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.413938.5%15 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Silva70c922.2$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.235664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b28…95fcbacked Silva70c857.14$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.141172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Grasso30c762.57$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.778140.7%33 W · 48 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f0…e173backed Grasso31c645$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.955536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75aa…58f1backed Grasso31c580.65$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1802638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf59…ff38backed Silva65c481.64$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.9683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick53cpaid+99.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Silva66c472.29$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.0621044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Grasso29c441$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.8913953.2%74 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Grasso31c428$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.6818560%111 W · 74 L+0.9wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Silva70c400$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12024862.5%155 W · 93 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Grasso22c400$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8816955.6%94 W · 75 L+23.8wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+59.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed Grasso31c400$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1243961.5%24 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Silva69c389.99$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.924356.8%138 W · 105 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Silva67c389.41$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.8114355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Grasso21c374.74$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6921554.4%117 W · 98 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Grasso27c365.09$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989124.2%22 W · 69 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad8c…f563backed Grasso29c362.08$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1042133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51a7…530ebacked Grasso6c323.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x298c…3e58backed Grasso31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005141.2%21 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Silva69c300$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934040%16 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x454b…8bacbacked Silva69c299.97$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.99875%6 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Silva68c290$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.44665.2%30 W · 16 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Grasso30c285.29$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9914751%75 W · 72 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e05…01cdbacked Silva71c281.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.69560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3585…1cd9backed Silva66c254.22$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.42666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd14c…17bebacked Silva70c245$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.513160.3%79 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf96c…40e1backed Silva70c235.71$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.711747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc5d…06acbacked Grasso31c230.58$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.481625%4 W · 12 L-3.7wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-53.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Grasso31c223.29$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7056450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Grasso32c222$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4540%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Grasso33c200.34$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3428743.9%126 W · 161 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Grasso29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed Grasso31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622450%12 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+55.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2467…c702backed Grasso18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610045%45 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x50e7…5dd6backed Grasso5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacd3…9e40backed Grasso12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5fe…5f6fbacked Grasso32c164.01$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.541952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b02…393ebacked Grasso31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5037…a863backed Grasso31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011054.5%60 W · 50 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Grasso31c159.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+37.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39b2…7b5ebacked Grasso33c145$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.31747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab43…f7b3backed Silva70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8616058.8%94 W · 66 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x375c…8c1fbacked Grasso31c137.9$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.75633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-41.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b2…aa53backed Silva71c136.62$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.622060%12 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbff4…a744backed Grasso18c136.39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.552548%12 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Grasso30c136$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3610439.4%41 W · 63 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e48…357bbacked Grasso32c126.65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc847…96aebacked Grasso32c125$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-65.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bfc…51d8backed Silva70c113.48$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.48540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-43.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Grasso32c109.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354763.8%30 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6203…d744backed Grasso19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202536%9 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecf4…9979backed Grasso31c101.06$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.296560%39 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+25.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Silva68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3226451.9%137 W · 127 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe8c3…611abacked Silva69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd16…0be8backed Grasso30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306851.5%35 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Grasso25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257921.5%17 W · 62 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-45.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Silva70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3028043.2%121 W · 159 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cf8…7f09backed Grasso34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3414052.1%73 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d66…424abacked Grasso10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked Grasso21c96.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.311942.9%51 W · 68 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x585c…526cbacked Grasso32c79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fe8…8a19backed Grasso32c74$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x128d…e2e7backed Grasso42c71.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21af…673fbacked Silva70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.431668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.