TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Stirling vs. Erslan

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Stirlingof Stirling, Erslan
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,817
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,767

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,817 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Erslan0c4,211$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.819418.6%36 W · 158 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Erslan23c4,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.9942042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Erslan26c3,435$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.484833.3%16 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb220…b07cbacked Erslan10c3,100$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.511735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Erslan28c3,050$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85435826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc814…dc7cbacked Stirling72c2,923$2,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.48850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Erslan22c1,900$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.9233253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Erslan34c1,834$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.5610447.1%49 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Stirling78c1,591$1,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.1314857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Erslan28c1,413$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.5711540%46 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Stirling76c1,319$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.2816951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3cf…a5d4backed Stirling78c1,282$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.055870.7%41 W · 17 L+6.8wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+21.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Stirling75c1,234$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.1218145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f99…8b05backed Stirling75c1,083$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Stirling75c1,080$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.9717158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Stirling78c1,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22035539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa4…531cbacked Erslan26c980$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Erslan24c935.52$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.5214751%75 W · 72 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x659c…8dfcbacked Stirling74c863.74$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.572774.1%20 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Stirling75c800$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20024356.8%138 W · 105 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Stirling75c800$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20035664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51a7…530ebacked Stirling78c709$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.98966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e00…c7dcbacked Stirling74c660$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75aa…58f1backed Stirling72c599.88$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.882638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed Stirling73c580.98$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.7411844.1%52 W · 66 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbef6…f2f9backed Erslan26c490$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.4875%6 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+94.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Erslan31c463.64$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.7328043.2%121 W · 159 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Erslan24c407.89$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8918453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Stirling75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10024862.5%155 W · 93 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e48…357bbacked Erslan25c365.43$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Erslan25c335$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7521044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed Erslan25c320$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803961.5%24 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x454b…8bacbacked Stirling75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75875%6 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Erslan24c279.75$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.148140.7%33 W · 48 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Stirling66c240.36$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.0921554.4%117 W · 98 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Erslan23c222.96$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4610439.4%41 W · 63 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Erslan28c210$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.713041.5%54 W · 76 L-9.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Erslan22c205$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.120249%99 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe110…453cbacked Erslan25c202.36$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.591330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c72…5c26backed Stirling74c202$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5210452.9%55 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacc3…de78backed Stirling74c200$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa78e…890bbacked Erslan27c177.65$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Stirling75c170$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.548749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecf4…9979backed Erslan18c165$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.126560%39 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+25.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xab43…f7b3backed Stirling74c150$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3916058.8%94 W · 66 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Stirling72c149$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.729062.2%56 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfe0…511dbacked Stirling74c140$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cdd…3b42backed Erslan27c138.37$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefb4…9653backed Stirling75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.336563.1%41 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd55c…34febacked Stirling72c132.48$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.15858.6%34 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b2…aa53backed Stirling75c129.33$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.332060%12 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x172b…e2cdbacked Stirling78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.211172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Stirling76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2439959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Erslan25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257921.5%17 W · 62 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-45.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Erslan25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2056450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Erslan23c79.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.966245.2%28 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa26e…4b43backed Stirling74c73.78$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9772…4c55backed Stirling74c72.54$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ad2…c0b2backed Stirling74c70.16$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb291…b953backed Stirling74c67.74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x116d…18acbacked Erslan28c67.14$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf56…2bc4backed Erslan29c64.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec71…2a98backed Erslan28c62.64$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c45…47f1backed Stirling72c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6719065.3%124 W · 66 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3bf8…a011backed Erslan28c53.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fa2…772abacked Stirling76c52.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.631154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed Erslan27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510148.5%49 W · 52 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37ba…a7b6backed Stirling76c47.11$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3b…7151backed Erslan27c45.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd14c…17bebacked Stirling73c45.74$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3513160.3%79 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Stirling75c42.51$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.517960.8%48 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd390…5d63backed Stirling74c40.42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed Erslan28c39.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.115839.2%62 W · 96 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fd9…f0d5backed Stirling76c39.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.473262.5%20 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick71cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb32…b21ebacked Erslan31c36.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.276354%34 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b17…6cb3backed Stirling75c34.44$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Stirling76c32.89$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.896360.3%38 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf66d…9863backed Stirling74c32.62$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Stirling78c32.18$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1822753.3%121 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Stirling75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.552252.9%276 W · 246 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0b8…0646backed Stirling74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.034153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db3…3c48backed Stirling74c26.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34c0…f052backed Stirling74c26.09$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.782100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5b84backed Stirling74c25.85$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3b8…2f3bbacked Stirling74c24.84$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafb7…75f4backed Stirling74c24.44$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.447655.3%42 W · 34 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f5c…a393backed Stirling74c23.31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c31…7813backed Stirling74c22.51$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2af6…34b5backed Stirling75c22.4$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-77.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x510d…a729backed Stirling74c21.72$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.65250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f33…cb23backed Stirling74c21.35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85f8…fbbdbacked Stirling74c21.14$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa19…fb67backed Stirling75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.12240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c63…0af8backed Stirling74c18.86$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4482…dce5backed Stirling74c17.65$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb823…4f5cbacked Stirling74c15.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed Stirling74c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.94445.5%20 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77d6…4fd2backed Stirling79c14.06$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.955648.2%27 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.