Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Lisa Cook vote at the next FOMC meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf620f5f6be942fc70ca39a924391c17a8652b7ee74648d66ec74db1e8c790d0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $394,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $503,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $394,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked No | 12c | 144,061$17,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,896.17 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 6c | 24,743$1,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,461.41 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked No | 8c | 20,798$1,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 4c | 7,012$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.35 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +276.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 2c | 5,621$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.37 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…9f55backed No | 2c | 5,283$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…403dbacked No | 8c | 5,279$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.51 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e12…919fbacked No | 2c | 5,276$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 3,309$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.29 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 6c | 3,304$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.69 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 3c | 3,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 5c | 2,762$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.52 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7516…8bebbacked Yes | 77c | 2,403$1,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.61 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 70c | 2,262$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.26 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 25c | 1,952$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.53 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 46c | 1,618$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.52 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 39c | 1,450$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.42 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 6c | 1,108$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…5157backed No | 5c | 1,014$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 12c | 1,010$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…dc84backed No | 2c | 826.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 51c | 752.1$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.53 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…1b07backed No | 8c | 669$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8e…3373backed No | 7c | 612.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…fcd1backed Yes | 73c | 600$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 3c | 561.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 3c | 402.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c9…c6d9backed No | 13c | 386.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 40c | 353.55$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.13 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 74c | 335.93$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.93 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed No | 11c | 317.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed Yes | 79c | 295.21$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 20c | 235.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +214.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…7637backed Yes | 80c | 210$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 70c | 199.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 73c | 165.99$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9266backed No | 9c | 133.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -59%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 78c | 127.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 10c | 117.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed Yes | 79c | 115.66$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes | 72c | 105$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed Yes | 70c | 100.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…bf35backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…e2febacked Yes | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed Yes | 60c | 58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed Yes | 73c | 37.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f8…2d8ebacked Yes | 80c | 25.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 74c | 17.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…ef6abacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.