College Football · resolved market
Michigan vs. Ohio State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9cd6a8bb5bc1944c4100be24858b3e98ba375b0489d58b3801f8af81fd8dc4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michiganof Michigan, Ohio State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1130…c545backed Michigan | 12c | 12,378$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,858.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c80…a608backed Michigan | 30c | 3,131$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,178.71 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…83dcbacked Michigan | 10c | 2,500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Ohio State | 77c | 2,315$1,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,781.39 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Ohio State | 32c | 2,157$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.38 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x990f…7507backed Ohio State | 31c | 1,613$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…a821backed Michigan | 76c | 1,462$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.8 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Ohio State | 20c | 1,333$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.6 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4741…6cf0backed Michigan | 11c | 1,195$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 50cpaid | +169.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Ohio State | 2c | 1,134$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…abd2backed Ohio State | 74c | 1,123$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…94bcbacked Michigan | 47c | 1,087$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.46 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20e…5998backed Ohio State | 80c | 1,012$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.21 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Ohio State | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…d9ebbacked Ohio State | 51c | 989.75$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.18 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa74c…fe69backed Michigan | 19c | 941$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +429.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d4…a96bbacked Michigan | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e44…79c9backed Michigan | 58c | 830.83$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.95 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Michigan | 11c | 730.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.91 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…cdbebacked Michigan | 19c | 664.36$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.58 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Ohio State | 42c | 628.75$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.11 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Ohio State | 21c | 622.85$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.42 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…afc2backed Michigan | 9c | 600$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8337…e5c1backed Michigan | 27c | 582.85$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Ohio State | 55c | 566.75$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.71 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Michigan | 47c | 509.05$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.82 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Michigan | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea6…aed7backed Michigan | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…58f0backed Ohio State | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Michigan | 8c | 499.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.48 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e1…12d4backed Ohio State | 75c | 408.87$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5706…44acbacked Michigan | 17c | 371.11$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a0…ed74backed Michigan | 75c | 345.9$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Ohio State | 54c | 310.99$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.61 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…f3a4backed Ohio State | 34c | 296.93$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55f4…959cbacked Ohio State | 31c | 251.54$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7a…f6dbbacked Ohio State | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Ohio State | 50c | 209.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…757abacked Michigan | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…30f5backed Michigan | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.82 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Michigan | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Michigan | 19c | 150$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fa…42f8backed Michigan | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +62%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…78cabacked Ohio State | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Michigan | 16c | 148.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Michigan | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.36 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd35c…34e4backed Michigan | 16c | 130$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…9471backed Ohio State | 73c | 121.84$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.19 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4b…fe27backed Michigan | 10c | 110$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…6bf0backed Michigan | 50c | 106.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5199…382bbacked Michigan | 18c | 105.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.56 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x648c…09c6backed Michigan | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Michigan | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8163…e061backed Ohio State | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ab…60c2backed Michigan | 22c | 98.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…ce08backed Ohio State | 78c | 88.18$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3669…bf59backed Michigan | 35c | 86.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab4…aaffbacked Michigan | 24c | 83.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.48 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa135…9974backed Michigan | 15c | 81.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab79…695fbacked Michigan | 23c | 78.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb579…f458backed Michigan | 24c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Ohio State | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52c3…dfcabacked Michigan | 18c | 59.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +171.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Michigan | 68c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Ohio State | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -6.0wins | -0.33per pick | 61cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7691…dfc0backed Michigan | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…53ddbacked Michigan | 26c | 41.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…e2d3backed Ohio State | 69c | 37.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Michigan | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Ohio State | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Ohio State | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f36…2305backed Ohio State | 79c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Ohio State | 79c | 25.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Ohio State | 71c | 24.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 309 | 49.5%153 W · 156 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.