TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd35c…34e4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
45
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: UFC, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 53 out of 100; worst NHL at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2025, EDT1553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Shedeur Sanders be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+102%+$10.2
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$178.7
Will the Lions win the NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$83.65
Commanders vs. Lionsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$158.09
Chargers vs. Texansbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Lions vs. 49ersbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST+75%+$11.25
Bills vs. Lionsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$20
49ers vs. Billsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST+53.8%+$10.77
Dolphins vs. Packersbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2024, EST+56.3%+$8.44
Giants vs. Cowboysbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2024, EST+88.7%+$17.74
Bears vs. Lionsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2024, EST+34.5%+$22.46
Lions vs. Coltsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST+33.3%+$11.33
Dolphins vs. Ramsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Lions vs. Texansbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2024, EST+57.6%+$31.68
All 15 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2025, EST1136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Notre Dame win the 2025 College Football Playoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will Ohio State win the 2025 College Football Playoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+138.1%+$138.1
Will Texas win the 2025 College Football Playoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST-100%-$58
Texas vs. Arizona Statebacked Arizona State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Clemson vs. Texasbacked Clemson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$25
Navy vs. Armybacked Army · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST-100%-$12
Georgia vs. Texasbacked Texas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2024, EST-100%-$12.1
UNLV vs. Boise Statebacked Boise State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2024, EST+56.3%+$5.63
Texas vs. Texas A&Mbacked Texas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+50.4%+$10.08
Michigan vs. Ohio Statebacked Michigan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2024, EST+540.4%+$109.7
Will Georgia beat Tennessee?backed Tennessee · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$15
All 11 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2025, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-70.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NHL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nancy Pelosi attend presidential inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$75
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dan Ige vs. Sean Woodsonbacked Ige · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$31.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+100%+$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$22.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.