TailMyPicks
Market

College Football · resolved market

Texas vs. Arizona State

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Texasof Texas, Arizona State
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$618,352
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$632,669

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $618,352 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 228 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x19d8…1691backed Arizona State0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Arizona State14c44,321$6,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,213.1886243.7%377 W · 485 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Arizona State3c13,859$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.515520%11 W · 44 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Arizona State13c12,193$1,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,557.6720341.9%85 W · 118 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Arizona State21c10,500$2,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,205280%0 W · 28 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x47bc…abd2backed Arizona State15c10,000$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,549.98540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-43%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa805…83dcbacked Arizona State7c9,897$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.9710220.6%21 W · 81 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Arizona State24c9,613$2,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,315.673842.1%16 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Texas70c9,500$6,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,849.911741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x26e3…f2e0backed Arizona State4c9,294$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0054…7f85backed Arizona State1c9,227$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.161952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-22.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Arizona State20c9,137$1,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,828.86540%26 W · 39 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Arizona State3c8,623$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.792370.8%2 W · 235 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-98.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Arizona State21c7,171$1,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.65166.3%1 W · 15 L-5.2wins-0.32per pick38cpaid-87.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x2863…0e3ebacked Arizona State24c6,319$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,485.6825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-61.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01f9…699dbacked Arizona State4c5,896$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.09616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-47.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed Arizona State17c5,000$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8501233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-48.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Arizona State19c5,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.9819043.2%82 W · 108 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Texas35c4,715$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,064.8730949.5%153 W · 156 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Texas59c4,204$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,703.7820039.5%79 W · 121 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b8…cc82backed Arizona State64c4,165$2,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,678.21450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Arizona State13c4,075$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.91942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Arizona State54c4,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1603762.2%23 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc217…df9ebacked Arizona State5c3,529$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.5650%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf00b…9c89backed Arizona State22c3,513$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.6530%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Texas80c3,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6004839.6%19 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb72b…2f6cbacked Arizona State4c2,789$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.87475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+22.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd692…8b9abacked Arizona State15c2,695$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.122213.6%3 W · 19 L-3.7wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-77.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2317…c891backed Arizona State14c2,168$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.78425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Arizona State9c2,059$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.161330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed Texas68c2,001$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.13138.7%12 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-39.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x611f…ec74backed Arizona State1c2,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Texas80c2,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4002850%14 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Arizona State21c1,907$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4071844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+32.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x405a…6382backed Arizona State20c1,885$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccf2…dde1backed Texas80c1,885$1,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.053100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+158.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Arizona State1c1,875$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24694.3%3 W · 66 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed Arizona State19c1,753$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+64.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Texas80c1,617$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.551330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe639…9122backed Arizona State33c1,602$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.51844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d69…9829backed Arizona State8c1,585$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.622147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x460a…e696backed Arizona State18c1,500$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.52352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1501…6623backed Arizona State19c1,403$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.52560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+29.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x876d…5238backed Arizona State15c1,364$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82e7…cce0backed Arizona State20c1,345$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1596…4361backed Arizona State20c1,301$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.13540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefed…1fffbacked Texas80c1,301$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.13475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+93.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23be…da4fbacked Arizona State20c1,250$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501827.8%5 W · 13 L-4.1wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-29.9%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x4ba3…4d8fbacked Arizona State8c1,242$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x008a…21a8backed Arizona State1c1,207$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Arizona State1c1,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7323.1%1 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-94.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Arizona State1c1,071$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.87814.9%4 W · 77 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed Arizona State4c1,052$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.511839%46 W · 72 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x133b…2f22backed Arizona State1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a67…dc7cbacked Arizona State16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1605543.6%24 W · 31 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed Arizona State13c1,000$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1322050%10 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf51…2037backed Arizona State17c1,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-44.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Arizona State19c999.99$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19039847.7%190 W · 208 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Arizona State18c999.97$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9e8…c443backed Texas72c996.11$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fb…2bfdbacked Arizona State11c994.57$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f17…84bbbacked Arizona State20c985$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Arizona State7c980.44$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656855.9%38 W · 30 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd1b…496abacked Arizona State20c980$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24fe…e52cbacked Arizona State20c959.42$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.082744.4%12 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+23.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8451…a27dbacked Arizona State19c958.45$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.11333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+156.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac43…4925backed Texas80c957.23$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.458347%39 W · 44 L-8.0wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-23.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Texas70c946.32$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.7723145.5%105 W · 126 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74a2…8a37backed Arizona State2c841.67$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4eb…1028backed Arizona State13c818.03$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2140%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71eb…8f3dbacked Arizona State9c816.03$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.05540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe59b…7507backed Texas50c811.17$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.09520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-59.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Texas80c800$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1604445.5%20 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed Arizona State4c799.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.71050%5 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+105.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd0…53b4backed Arizona State20c751.55$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.31333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Arizona State15c750$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1152638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8c…e69dbacked Arizona State4c738.61$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked Arizona State17c726.72$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.791656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02c7…3df7backed Arizona State21c705.66$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.6812857%73 W · 55 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b69…e32abacked Arizona State19c699.98$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1311145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6e0…8412backed Arizona State15c678.49$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4140%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4202…9611backed Arizona State69c581.47$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.852060%12 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe897…513ebacked Arizona State15c540$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.545339.6%21 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f31…a253backed Arizona State46c540$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.43650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xacbd…3c7abacked Texas77c533.19$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.193056.7%17 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1d4…6775backed Arizona State17c529.41$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcefa…bef8backed Texas79c526.68$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.63941%16 W · 23 L-5.2wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-23.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x082b…5e67backed Arizona State49c500$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.421457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6650…d38ebacked Texas80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1005944.1%26 W · 33 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x067f…a821backed Texas80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1003076.7%23 W · 7 L+5.8wins+0.19per pick57cpaid+16.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Arizona State15c499.27$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.953363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x2d7b…d15ebacked Arizona State21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Arizona State7c465.23$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.268643%37 W · 49 L-0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4ae…36ddbacked Arizona State21c452.38$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ca…d65ebacked Arizona State70c427.95$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick69cpaid-32.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa501…9f0fbacked Arizona State25c410$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.091330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-38.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f58…9c6abacked Texas78c405.08$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.121637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x645e…d120backed Texas79c400$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ad0…a9d8backed Texas40c400$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+74.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e16…ce1ebacked Texas80c359.83$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.972100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+53.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.