TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

49ers vs. Bills

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Billsof 49ers, Bills
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$874,975
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$969,722

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $874,975 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 621 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked 49ers14c115,877$15,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,688.4920634.5%71 W · 135 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94dc…c779backed Bills69c104,643$72,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,961.437853.8%42 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked 49ers26c47,596$12,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,445.3932438%123 W · 201 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26f4…5d51backed Bills74c41,060$30,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,643.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed 49ers26c28,733$7,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,383.3425137.5%94 W · 157 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x20cc…ebc0backed 49ers34c28,189$9,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,532.054736.2%17 W · 30 L-7.9wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-45%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed 49ers8c27,809$2,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,342.8217823%41 W · 137 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-48.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked 49ers9c26,594$2,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,397.0433328.5%95 W · 238 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4851…16dbbacked 49ers26c25,895$6,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,792.1421251.9%110 W · 102 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa84b…5055backed Bills74c22,428$16,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,797.723976.9%30 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+10.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0cc9…fc51backed Bills70c21,106$14,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,378.043871.1%27 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+28.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked 49ers25c20,778$5,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,149.1344246.8%207 W · 235 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b9…cf5ebacked 49ers4c20,566$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.55925.4%15 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-37.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae76…dce5backed 49ers26c13,527$3,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,454.927339.2%107 W · 166 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5faf…27bbbacked Bills72c13,479$9,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,717.497857.7%45 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b31…11a8backed 49ers25c12,676$3,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,122.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c0…3f84backed 49ers33c10,352$3,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,387.166950.7%35 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a2…6af8backed Bills75c10,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50012570.4%88 W · 37 L+12.8wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+15.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed 49ers26c10,000$2,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,59010624.5%26 W · 80 L-12.6wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-40.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x21ed…16f3backed Bills75c10,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,500966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4741…6cf0backed Bills75c9,333$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,333.331968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed 49ers35c8,676$3,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,017.714349%70 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed 49ers34c7,959$2,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,701.560049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd057…ae9fbacked 49ers10c7,343$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.7511821.2%25 W · 93 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+46.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c93…a26dbacked 49ers12c7,200$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8601136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40b6…69f0backed Bills72c6,951$5,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,946.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed 49ers27c6,833$1,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,867.822638.9%88 W · 138 L-1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked 49ers25c6,572$1,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6436752.2%35 W · 32 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed 49ers25c6,555$1,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,620.7513430.6%41 W · 93 L-12.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-39%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x79a1…5801backed Bills72c6,000$4,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,709.9910768.2%73 W · 34 L+9.6wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+12%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed 49ers25c5,852$1,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,462.896338.1%24 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Bills72c5,569$4,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.35472.2%39 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6434…cdbebacked 49ers12c5,510$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.325429.6%16 W · 38 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ed7…537abacked Bills80c5,282$4,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.365848.3%28 W · 30 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Bills74c5,006$3,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323.6212760.6%77 W · 50 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a0e…113dbacked Bills76c5,001$3,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,201.352391.3%21 W · 2 L+6.0wins+0.26per pick65cpaid+44.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Bills76c5,000$3,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,179.996639.4%26 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9fe…ad85backed Bills75c4,807$3,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,224.066758.2%39 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked 49ers26c4,546$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18236246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ab…5eb9backed Bills71c4,231$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.823773%27 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed 49ers25c4,168$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.1234349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03e3…08e0backed Bills71c3,950$2,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,136.924669.6%32 W · 14 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa19a…2f33backed 49ers27c3,700$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9991850%9 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Bills73c3,481$2,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.9228556.5%161 W · 124 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2800…2081backed 49ers36c3,332$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.696752.2%35 W · 32 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x89cd…f03bbacked Bills76c3,300$2,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.067456.8%42 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x698e…8042backed 49ers27c3,118$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8501030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed 49ers23c3,085$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.5925643.8%112 W · 144 L+14.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2c7…1b5bbacked 49ers27c3,004$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.9410738.3%41 W · 66 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4cf…78c4backed 49ers34c3,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4ef…974cbacked Bills75c2,667$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.674577.8%35 W · 10 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+19%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked 49ers25c2,649$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.358550.6%43 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d9c…00f6backed Bills76c2,638$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.114245.2%19 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc87…dd68backed Bills66c2,424$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.163429.4%10 W · 24 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-34.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed 49ers27c2,389$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.610639.6%42 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x45e1…f42dbacked 49ers4c2,339$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1220733.8%70 W · 137 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x744b…6132backed 49ers31c2,234$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7002245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2214…5968backed 49ers26c2,199$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.743844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed 49ers32c2,174$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.992965.5%19 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b5d…7e9ebacked Bills75c2,152$1,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.172190.5%19 W · 2 L+4.7wins+0.22per pick68cpaid+35.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x51c2…2b13backed Bills73c2,129$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.772572%18 W · 7 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+25.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe59b…488ebacked 49ers26c2,119$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.0114022.9%32 W · 108 L-12.8wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x29c9…b44ebacked Bills73c2,055$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.791163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed Bills74c2,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5209754.6%53 W · 44 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked 49ers25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50039754.4%216 W · 181 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd35d…7089backed 49ers5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014452.8%76 W · 68 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…a821backed 49ers11c2,000$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.8612842.2%54 W · 74 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7e1…69a4backed Bills63c1,905$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.765829.3%17 W · 41 L-9.2wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-47.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd52c…4125backed 49ers4c1,850$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74100%0 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa8cd…3cf2backed 49ers25c1,847$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.564420.5%9 W · 35 L-6.2wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-40.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb7c8…24dcbacked Bills74c1,780$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.8120557.6%118 W · 87 L+16.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ac6…a6cebacked Bills73c1,757$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.141225%3 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-64.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a4f…79fbbacked 49ers29c1,755$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5091266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe897…513ebacked 49ers36c1,701$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.46354%34 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked 49ers26c1,696$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4411520%3 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-55.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a5e…c869backed 49ers29c1,588$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45711738.5%45 W · 72 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdc88…681abacked 49ers29c1,569$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4551127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-56.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x54c2…e299backed Bills73c1,568$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.49966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd72e…0ae6backed Bills73c1,542$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.252759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ff9…bb89backed Bills68c1,525$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.649952.5%52 W · 47 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x565b…fa9bbacked Bills75c1,502$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.444673.9%34 W · 12 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x31cf…8834backed 49ers25c1,500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3752619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Bills73c1,450$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39412934.9%45 W · 84 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76c6…5a68backed Bills72c1,447$1,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.191266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x15f0…974dbacked 49ers29c1,401$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce54…90bcbacked 49ers29c1,352$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.162147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd42f…e540backed Bills75c1,334$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.84475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a67…dc7cbacked Bills75c1,331$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.676956.5%39 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cf4…8f44backed Bills73c1,277$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.881428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x81b9…4d31backed Bills77c1,272$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c80…a608backed 49ers26c1,264$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.645527.3%15 W · 40 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x202d…f8dabacked 49ers33c1,212$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001540%6 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+39.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1d31…2cbfbacked 49ers29c1,209$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.732466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf9f9…9f73backed Bills74c1,081$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.08475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5c5…3ae5backed 49ers26c1,075$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.261540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-44.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf863…82ccbacked 49ers6c1,074$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.452152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a7…75e2backed 49ers27c1,056$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f85…d745backed Bills76c1,055$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.5913260.6%80 W · 52 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd22…2df2backed 49ers19c1,053$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Bills75c1,000$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25438459.9%230 W · 154 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.