NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c092b989b975922bcc2f83f47844efff0dcedfdd18b40ae4935514db62e33c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Lightning, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 340 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Lightning | 9c | 3,191$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.18 | 313 | 34.8%109 W · 204 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Lightning | 4c | 2,500$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1,163 | 2.3%27 W · 1,136 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Lightning | 48c | 1,133$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.63 | 355 | 45.4%161 W · 194 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Lightning | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 103 | 1%1 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…2184backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 999.98$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.99 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 999.94$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.97 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Lightning | 43c | 880.68$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.69 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Maple Leafs | 52c | 812.48$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.66 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Lightning | 14c | 593.26$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.48 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Lightning | 44c | 565.24$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.08 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Maple Leafs | 51c | 546.01$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.96 | 203 | 45.3%92 W · 111 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Maple Leafs | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Lightning | 4c | 496.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 745 | 0.7%5 W · 740 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Lightning | 49c | 429.99$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.02 | 724 | 44.6%323 W · 401 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Lightning | 47c | 392.81$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.94 | 1,475 | 48.3%712 W · 763 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3208…6bedbacked Maple Leafs | 78c | 383.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Lightning | 32c | 337.36$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Lightning | 43c | 335.96$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.46 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked Lightning | 31c | 313.7$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.09 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Lightning | 10c | 286.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9c…d01bbacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Lightning | 48c | 255.92$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 840 | 51.4%432 W · 408 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Lightning | 45c | 250$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc048…022cbacked Maple Leafs | 50c | 223.8$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ac…4285backed Lightning | 51c | 223.53$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccb…4410backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 217.64$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d1…ae18backed Lightning | 51c | 217.39$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e7…a1a9backed Lightning | 35c | 215$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d9…f18cbacked Lightning | 52c | 212.28$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd12…6b38backed Maple Leafs | 49c | 212.24$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…d05dbacked Maple Leafs | 50c | 212.2$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Lightning | 29c | 212.02$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 928 | 48.5%450 W · 478 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a31…9a7abacked Lightning | 51c | 211.77$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8f…f77dbacked Maple Leafs | 50c | 211.6$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…936bbacked Maple Leafs | 50c | 210$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3660…761fbacked Lightning | 52c | 209.62$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5614…4893backed Lightning | 50c | 208$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35ee…8eeabacked Maple Leafs | 52c | 206.41$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24b…cdc4backed Lightning | 52c | 206.27$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0447…000ebacked Maple Leafs | 49c | 206.12$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba6…cccabacked Maple Leafs | 49c | 206.12$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…23d7backed Lightning | 52c | 206.12$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0648…0928backed Maple Leafs | 49c | 205.8$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccd…ffb9backed Lightning | 53c | 205.75$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…8cadbacked Lightning | 52c | 204.62$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad5…839dbacked Maple Leafs | 49c | 204.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa282…af74backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 204$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ea…725fbacked Lightning | 51c | 203.92$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af7…b3dfbacked Maple Leafs | 50c | 203.89$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6b…8672backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 203.56$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…d381backed Lightning | 52c | 203.56$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8581…a0f3backed Lightning | 51c | 203.53$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807a…eeb9backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 202.8$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…6658backed Lightning | 52c | 202.65$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc21a…918abacked Maple Leafs | 50c | 202.12$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd005…5ea9backed Lightning | 52c | 202.05$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37f9…fcd3backed Lightning | 52c | 202.05$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…9a32backed Lightning | 52c | 202.02$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe43…d411backed Lightning | 51c | 202$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x683b…14d4backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 202$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf47e…e5eebacked Maple Leafs | 50c | 202$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6907…fd7ebacked Maple Leafs | 50c | 202$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Maple Leafs | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ef…a23dbacked Lightning | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…8644backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9669…832abacked Maple Leafs | 51c | 198.04$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda49…20babacked Lightning | 50c | 196$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Lightning | 48c | 191.71$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.93 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c75…6e78backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 182$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…7745backed Maple Leafs | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…d18bbacked Lightning | 44c | 178.57$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…8b9abacked Lightning | 12c | 178.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae62…d2a1backed Lightning | 45c | 177.31$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Maple Leafs | 56c | 156$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 508 | 57.7%293 W · 215 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2a…9146backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…60bebacked Lightning | 7c | 149.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 132 | 41.7%55 W · 77 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04ff…fdd7backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 147.88$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked Maple Leafs | 55c | 147.87$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.54 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d23…6a17backed Lightning | 45c | 139.18$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fd…b794backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 126.51$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…93c5backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 123.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c0…8ce2backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 120.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Lightning | 50c | 116.26$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6983backed Lightning | 45c | 112.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7f…8995backed Maple Leafs | 72c | 111.39$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6d…8157backed Lightning | 32c | 109.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04c9…d6d8backed Lightning | 45c | 107.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed Maple Leafs | 74c | 106.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 37 | 81.1%30 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 69cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e38…5d36backed Lightning | 45c | 105.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8c…02fcbacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 102.44$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Lightning | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aea…abf1backed Lightning | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…d18cbacked Maple Leafs | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15c9…e725backed Lightning | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Lightning | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 500 | 49.4%247 W · 253 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22a…1697backed Maple Leafs | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 92 | 51.1%47 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18b…5335backed Lightning | 45c | 98.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c0…2d68backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 98.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b14…d17cbacked Lightning | 45c | 97.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93eb…2108backed Lightning | 45c | 96.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.