TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,154,686
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,372,887

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,154,686 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2e3e…abeabacked Yes0c838,472$2,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,814.9240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes0c321,519$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.0490%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes0c199,999$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200290%0 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c141,929$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.411491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce4…dd91backed Yes0c72,891$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f8f…722bbacked Yes0c59,166$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x409f…543abacked Yes0c52,934$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.93200%0 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c51,000$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50270%0 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc21e…0215backed Yes0c46,136$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.21633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-37.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa88d…9830backed Yes0c45,833$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4911…bbf7backed Yes0c44,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58fd…43a6backed Yes0c42,219$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.22640%0 W · 64 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes0c39,999$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40630%0 W · 63 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c35,000$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes0c30,710$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8614421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcecf…e206backed Yes0c30,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-72.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x78ae…7412backed Yes0c30,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf31a…8fbcbacked Yes0c29,999$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes0c28,640$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fff…8c1fbacked Yes0c26,887$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaae…3c3dbacked Yes2c24,953$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.8430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfdb…d762backed Yes0c23,550$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2200…aa09backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d7c…51b6backed Yes1c18,791$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.18728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-62.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes0c18,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes0c17,131$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.26120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes0c16,998$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17430%0 W · 43 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0476…5794backed Yes0c16,737$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes1c15,937$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.262317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+478.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6d4…34dbbacked Yes0c12,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid-9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d7…9b6ebacked Yes0c12,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2506…93cabacked Yes0c10,900$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf040…3a86backed Yes0c10,742$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.942218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-67.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x000c…bcf3backed Yes0c10,335$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4630…c8d9backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb458…abc4backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeea6…b950backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e89…9a0bbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes0c9,965$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.190%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5548…11fdbacked Yes0c8,164$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4490%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4354…756bbacked Yes1c7,682$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6670%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00ee…1128backed Yes0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1580%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2015…3fbfbacked Yes1c7,150$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-55.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4385…45ecbacked Yes2c7,010$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x964f…79a8backed Yes1c6,109$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.580%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x569f…4ebebacked Yes0c5,643$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63fc…9084backed Yes0c5,593$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1e4…64d0backed Yes0c5,443$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6800…2ea9backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb32…0cc1backed Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1580%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a12…daf6backed Yes3c4,537$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.1940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9c5f…55ccbacked Yes1c4,206$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.89616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-74.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c32…b464backed Yes1c4,167$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-84.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x022e…8ea2backed Yes0c4,029$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c4…865fbacked Yes0c3,979$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5553…a54bbacked Yes0c3,979$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf59b…94d9backed Yes0c3,929$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4955…e949backed Yes0c3,879$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8661…0e14backed Yes1c3,704$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1692…d6e4backed Yes0c3,667$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a21…d26abacked Yes1c3,479$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.731717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+76.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c3,435$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.191,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcff4…8b0ebacked Yes1c3,223$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c3,029$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.442522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92eb…78adbacked Yes1c2,985$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12e2…36b0backed Yes3c2,859$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x173e…2d86backed Yes1c2,577$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c2,574$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.422560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2b2…2174backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b65…08ccbacked Yes0c2,319$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes1c2,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-72%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ae…0ae8backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7391…a352backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x45c8…3fdcbacked Yes2c1,859$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb4e…47f0backed Yes1c1,750$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c1,638$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.262792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…6946backed Yes1c1,456$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes2c1,365$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4290%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes2c1,300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.38110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07bd…b49fbacked Yes2c1,105$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed Yes1c1,050$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.318815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a42…5ba5backed Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd28…9df9backed Yes2c999.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46fa…9a8cbacked Yes2c975$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83fe…6b61backed Yes2c975$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.14100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa909…6badbacked Yes2c975$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4690%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff54…9e29backed Yes2c944.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6225…5eb6backed Yes2c910$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.160%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes2c910$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6290%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c7e…71b7backed Yes2c910$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x992e…53abbacked Yes1c863.91$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21de…cb92backed Yes2c811.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf093…f3b1backed Yes3c782.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3873…77c6backed Yes3c765.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…1592backed Yes1c686.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2224.5%1 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick21cpaid-90.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2d65…beb4backed Yes2c618.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4e9…245dbacked Yes2c585$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1270%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb045…9c46backed Yes2c529.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.071145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.