Fed Rates · resolved market
Will 60 or more of senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16a9365b1290ebb03e45ffa3f42e526a54e9f3cf23aebfbf2fa93c60a3dfbff5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 21c | 938.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.22 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78df…6d7abacked Yes | 23c | 434.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked Yes | 14c | 276.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 220.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 79c | 143$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 21c | 133.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 125$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 60c | 119$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 114.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 30c | 93.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 77c | 89.94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…1f67backed Yes | 34c | 82.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 18c | 72.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 40c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 24c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 76c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…0b88backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 72c | 20.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 60 or more of senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?this page
- Will 49 or fewer senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?No won
- Will 50 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?No won
- Will 51 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?No won
- Will 52 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?No won
- Will 53 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?No won
- Will 54 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?Yes won
- Will 59 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.