Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel invade Lebanon by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc20fd92a86df89bd5326dd387f45f74133cf5bc568c4eb229de74c11bf5b0eb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $254,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $226,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $254,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 5c | 25,739$1,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.42 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…f234backed Yes | 13c | 16,345$2,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,152.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 2c | 12,981$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 0c | 10,402$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…f95fbacked Yes | 14c | 8,000$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 10c | 7,841$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…8a04backed Yes | 2c | 7,498$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.46 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1189…a9e0backed Yes | 11c | 5,537$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.72 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 76c | 5,218$3,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.88 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc277…b59bbacked Yes | 7c | 4,687$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 9c | 3,913$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.06 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1369…7559backed Yes | 18c | 3,913$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc5…3f96backed Yes | 4c | 3,680$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.48 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 10c | 3,175$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.11 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…221dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,218$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…4787backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x114f…686cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,875$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…4b5fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,805$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73bb…6161backed Yes | 21c | 1,790$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 80c | 1,783$1,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.81 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 78c | 1,134$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.15 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…eca4backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…1d90backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0003…857abacked No | 60c | 942.02$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 11c | 906.61$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…f618backed Yes | 1c | 876.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x557d…51adbacked Yes | 1c | 805$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…a9d7backed Yes | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…6a12backed Yes | 14c | 736.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x174e…ec1ebacked Yes | 19c | 619.9$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 3c | 597$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…acb7backed Yes | 7c | 582.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x456b…eb7ebacked Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…5afdbacked Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d10…5f3fbacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a79…f197backed Yes | 7c | 457.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…ffbebacked Yes | 8c | 455$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes | 10c | 436.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2499…e3abbacked Yes | 5c | 418.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e84…4b92backed Yes | 20c | 400$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 11c | 393.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x537d…74b0backed Yes | 11c | 385.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…fdf3backed Yes | 11c | 368.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…8e0cbacked Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…3455backed Yes | 12c | 314.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 12c | 304.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…0734backed Yes | 11c | 275$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc49…3d89backed Yes | 11c | 267$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 19c | 260.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -7.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8259…bd18backed Yes | 17c | 249.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ee…842cbacked Yes | 10c | 231.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x638c…4a2cbacked Yes | 24c | 187.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7587…ce6cbacked Yes | 12c | 183.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7143…d7bcbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0f…039fbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 11c | 180$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac07…38d4backed Yes | 11c | 172.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…f9e9backed Yes | 17c | 172.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…20e1backed Yes | 16c | 165.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef4c…827cbacked Yes | 15c | 162.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a85…37c8backed Yes | 18c | 154$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6420…3309backed Yes | 16c | 152.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…10d8backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0437…e7e7backed Yes | 13c | 149.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…92f9backed Yes | 14c | 148.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…b3febacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf717…702cbacked Yes | 12c | 133.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d1…5ef4backed Yes | 13c | 130.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf34a…e03cbacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 78c | 118.13$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aab…0cd4backed Yes | 16c | 109.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 10c | 104.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x315b…6f77backed Yes | 19c | 102.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca7…81ddbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b10…b562backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…7501backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa365…7166backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…e941backed Yes | 18c | 95.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcc…a361backed Yes | 14c | 94.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748f…f6e5backed Yes | 39c | 93.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88bd…4c17backed Yes | 16c | 77.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed Yes | 21c | 76.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0782…616dbacked Yes | 29c | 68.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2447…d141backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.