TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Election certified on January 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,696,192
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,492,292

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,696,192 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x542a…a81bbacked No1c264,563$3,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,779.111007%7 W · 93 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c6…ebefbacked No3c262,558$7,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,510.940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e8d…dfccbacked No11c142,631$16,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,129.33425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a45…4a71backed No2c108,733$2,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,472.0890%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed No1c106,845$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.2510211.8%12 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked No1c91,670$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.917227.8%20 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked No4c75,000$3,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,288.52147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No10c71,351$7,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,339.447041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No2c60,598$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,313.311244.8%6 W · 118 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-85.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3709…3d7ebacked No3c59,721$1,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,802.212119%4 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed No2c54,546$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,332.048219.5%16 W · 66 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77cf…0e71backed No2c43,699$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.192729.6%8 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77cf…9d82backed No1c36,425$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x856f…e1d7backed No3c34,570$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.943333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+56.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked No1c32,599$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.810137.6%38 W · 63 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No2c31,977$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.3911848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8eae…fc3ebacked No7c23,871$1,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,776.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66d7…6d45backed No2c20,414$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6931…8fb5backed No1c19,097$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc930…9ed4backed No1c17,577$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.5590%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No4c17,437$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.1617225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf18f…294cbacked No3c16,877$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.942832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf92…55cbbacked No3c14,190$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f72…83adbacked No1c12,912$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.121931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88ca…84acbacked No9c12,835$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed3…f0a5backed No3c12,640$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd298…42aebacked No3c12,291$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.33520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid-34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No1c10,425$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.6611419.3%22 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a05…2ddabacked No3c9,876$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.123033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No4c9,627$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.74346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed No1c9,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202516%4 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-74.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b31…b02dbacked No4c8,947$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac1…a6adbacked No3c8,875$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked No2c6,147$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.342123.8%5 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick13cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c5a…3f05backed No0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-71.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed No7c5,000$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3553321.2%7 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8a…c9fbbacked No2c4,880$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13fc…cff4backed No2c4,825$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-75.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef8d…f3e5backed No2c4,342$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8272…14bbbacked No4c4,290$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.33425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked No4c4,224$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.316033.3%20 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No4c3,945$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed No3c3,730$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.45828.5%7 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb59…4e58backed No2c3,355$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77258%2 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-61.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x420c…4344backed No8c3,216$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa1…f387backed No1c3,030$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e63…9313backed No2c3,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4560%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ad7…86bfbacked No2c2,768$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+71.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x144c…50fcbacked No4c2,700$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef61…c705backed No1c2,636$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7120%0 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a66…9bc0backed No1c2,447$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6480%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9216…6b78backed No1c2,097$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78cf…4816backed No1c2,050$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.41936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No3c2,014$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6917021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No1c2,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248058.8%47 W · 33 L+9.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+24.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd6cd…1469backed No1c1,986$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked No2c1,903$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.118739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed No3c1,771$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked No3c1,734$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2518914.3%27 W · 162 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c74…073ebacked No1c1,154$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed No5c1,129$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.367119.7%14 W · 57 L-8.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbf1b…2b79backed No15c1,066$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed No3c1,020$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.584645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe157…6db1backed No2c1,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.681764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No3c1,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8614241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ebd…815abacked No2c960$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e01…2699backed No2c900$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ad6…8845backed No1c799.78$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2795…92f9backed No7c692.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x498f…7b7fbacked No4c688.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.741637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x503f…e43cbacked No15c679.94$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.71425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0de0…5112backed No5c638.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ab9…e2f0backed No4c622.42$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.49425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-65.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc92a…2818backed No3c615.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99c0…7e81backed No2c603.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.413053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0329…8129backed No16c590$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4a5…ae91backed No2c526.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26ef…dfc8backed No10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-78.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ae4…4f84backed No5c485.71$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.182142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb61…a3aabacked No8c403.62$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefd7…23f3backed No5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf66f…8e0cbacked No10c350$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.51533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5982…fa1ebacked No15c350$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb380…5270backed No3c350$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb97d…b68cbacked No16c334.39$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.51942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No9c320.05$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8199629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f4f…6f13backed No17c316.65$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed No4c307$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.292154.2%9 W · 206 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f13…d602backed No17c294.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-41.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5143…432ebacked No7c292.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed No4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-56%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d98…5047backed No10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd840…c8b3backed No17c215.4$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.621163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.25per pick38cpaid+61.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed No11c210.51$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.512846.4%13 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+39.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe20f…1e48backed No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick10cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eea…8072backed No17c193.75$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb86f…208bbacked No9c166.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed No14c148.18$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.066432.8%21 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9316…1e11backed No11c136.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf49b…add9backed No15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.