Olympics · resolved market
Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdde10a52d84bbd49ce00a9243d62f21b4ee6116a013e076fd207d58a624eef2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked No | 30c | 2,943$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.66 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…205abacked Yes | 70c | 2,264$1,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0003…857abacked No | 37c | 1,180$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 37c | 748.91$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.1 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Yes | 61c | 702.5$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb542…0fc7backed Yes | 63c | 622.6$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 35c | 473.63$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.13 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…741bbacked Yes | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24aa…cd37backed Yes | 69c | 463.36$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…8e0cbacked Yes | 63c | 398$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked No | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 71c | 271.62$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.77 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…552fbacked No | 39c | 259.53$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.04 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…2a96backed Yes | 65c | 249.37$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.57 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc401…fbd0backed Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad79…7abbbacked No | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 63c | 159.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…fc2bbacked Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yes | 63c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Yes | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9af…f2ffbacked Yes | 64c | 76.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa988…ed6fbacked Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf0…1179backed No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…eccabacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed2…56e0backed Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…c433backed Yes | 63c | 36.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…c772backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c7…6f32backed Yes | 64c | 26.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x105b…08f0backed Yes | 58c | 26.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e65…11f3backed Yes | 62c | 23.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…39c1backed Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…3228backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…a4a0backed Yes | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…d867backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke?this page
- Will Zac Stubblety-Cook (AUS) win Gold in Men's 200m Breaststroke?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.