TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Kash Patel releases Epstein files on Day 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$290,702
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$225,380

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $290,702 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes5c28,718$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,468.383859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes4c21,858$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.2212910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x758a…4893backed Yes5c12,564$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.523050%15 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes3c9,493$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.086221%13 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c4a…f5e6backed Yes7c6,832$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4541233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+21.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf66f…8e0cbacked Yes14c5,565$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.221533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105928.8%17 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109426.6%25 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes3c4,876$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.11195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick1cpaid+230%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d6e…9418backed Yes3c3,920$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23ce…17dabacked Yes8c3,830$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.93837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc70e…57f4backed Yes11c3,556$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d31…cb04backed Yes9c3,385$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.452050%10 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0347…e0e5backed Yes6c3,317$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.244119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5464…be5ebacked Yes7c3,122$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.663925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes9c3,110$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.748231.7%26 W · 56 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a1…5f52backed Yes6c2,967$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26e8…f15bbacked Yes10c2,922$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-62.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7be…cc5cbacked Yes9c2,782$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.31533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44ed…c6d1backed Yes19c2,727$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.16714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid+9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes6c2,668$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.069810.2%10 W · 88 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x131e…52e4backed Yes8c2,625$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes2c2,577$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9769634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb63f…557fbacked Yes10c2,547$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes1c2,500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2115924.5%39 W · 120 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a6a…e3b1backed Yes6c2,495$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.34450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+129.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x088d…63b0backed Yes9c2,224$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes7c2,200$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.927646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes6c2,122$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.8399629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x09d7…1b55backed Yes7c2,050$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.1185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-76%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes4c1,977$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.2313.2%1 W · 30 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick18cpaid-91.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes3c1,900$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5720446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes10c1,600$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.311612.9%15 W · 101 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe60c…a6a0backed Yes11c1,557$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.191729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2328…5adabacked Yes2c1,554$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.89229.1%2 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd39…8a1dbacked Yes7c1,424$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f98…bafcbacked Yes10c1,319$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fe9…4fd9backed Yes4c1,210$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-64.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb70e…39c6backed Yes10c1,208$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.08425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9d5…6f6abacked Yes4c1,200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes2c1,200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4277.4%2 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-70.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c23…b6a1backed Yes10c1,188$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.721910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-81%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf84…703cbacked Yes13c1,003$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9706…13b9backed Yes13c1,002$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130527.7%4 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-81.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes7c974.41$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.241010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid+90.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1990…e954backed Yes10c962.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003016.7%5 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes7c928.04$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3917021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x528f…8496backed Yes4c900$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.332119%4 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes13c826.8$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6630319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed Yes7c763$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.174438.6%17 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef43…7b62backed Yes7c728.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50296.9%2 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.14per pick21cpaid-58.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ce9…9c2dbacked Yes9c718.22$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4760%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7c3…087dbacked Yes4c694.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4447…a0e7backed Yes10c631.72$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.472317.4%4 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x91a4…7547backed Yes9c601.01$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.16520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-57.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10e0…781abacked Yes9c585.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-27.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe067…b980backed Yes8c532.2$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x913b…2866backed Yes8c531.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4070%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes5c521.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3918914.3%27 W · 162 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes6c518.08$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9117713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x444e…01d0backed Yes6c500$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.464042.5%17 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes9c497.55$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.042412.5%3 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x650d…c383backed Yes10c490.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x595b…d58bbacked Yes8c473.44$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf38b…df47backed Yes12c430$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.981323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-64.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes12c418.1$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.537533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa386…a3aebacked Yes11c323.29$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353225%8 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65f6…770fbacked Yes8c258.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8356…7ad1backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…82ebbacked Yes8c248.79$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc575…5da6backed Yes9c231.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e0b…9bfbbacked Yes8c226.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ff7…3328backed Yes13c225$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b88…5e2ebacked Yes18c222.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf473…a595backed Yes9c213.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70d6…a4a1backed Yes12c212.32$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6c6c…806bbacked Yes9c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.821225%3 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.214048.6%68 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c47…174bbacked Yes14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.85540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed Yes10c200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.69641.7%40 W · 56 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6855…0cc5backed Yes15c197.92$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-84.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbdd…b459backed Yes11c178.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd36a…5bc2backed Yes9c167.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaa8…6c7cbacked Yes7c150$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.355444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb869…c4c6backed Yes15c150$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.12714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-72.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes14c101$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7432626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24d2…92c5backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.43834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed No23c78.66$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.493966.7%26 W · 13 L+10.2wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+133.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.