World Politics · resolved market
UK civil war in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0eb66d0f614bedb1b730345d9069766d144ccecb52fba8fd42d5356cd1a2830
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $422,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $318,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $422,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 69,873$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.87 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 3c | 27,795$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.63 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6e…96ffbacked Yes | 4c | 18,512$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df2…a61dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,461$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8240…cbfabacked Yes | 0c | 10,843$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed Yes | 1c | 9,552$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x028c…162fbacked Yes | 0c | 8,315$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ac…714fbacked Yes | 0c | 7,315$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 1c | 6,639$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c9…f035backed Yes | 0c | 5,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x069d…0089backed Yes | 5c | 5,002$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6550…b49ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 3c | 4,900$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 1c | 4,300$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 2c | 3,529$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…f6fbbacked Yes | 0c | 3,308$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 2c | 3,181$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…2290backed Yes | 2c | 2,827$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 3c | 2,020$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed4…92b4backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,312$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb677…46f6backed Yes | 5c | 1,228$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 1c | 1,139$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -73%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e79…c497backed Yes | 5c | 1,048$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x174e…ec1ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 4c | 951.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…1f07backed Yes | 2c | 652.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 3c | 565.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 4c | 554.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x084e…b618backed Yes | 2c | 486.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…8e0cbacked Yes | 5c | 425.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47df…6076backed Yes | 4c | 417.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaae…6538backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ef…2fecbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…833fbacked Yes | 8c | 147.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.