AI · resolved market
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x814ccfa62dfb7ea172c462e0486a0a329cbf096a267036d79d1844fa7d82fba8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 8c | 1,339$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.24 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…3741backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 8c | 963.22$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 19c | 797.59$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.45 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 730.31$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 290.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -10.6wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed Yes | 8c | 249.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 5c | 243.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 213.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 16c | 176.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 76c | 131.13$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed Yes | 23c | 106.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 18c | 75.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 80c | 60.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…3024backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 77c | 24.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 79c | 22.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…37e8backed No | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes won
- Will Meituan have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.