AI · resolved market

Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a22caa25515882ac95eaac1f055e86d76a0cc38d18eb01a8357ceafe29a0837

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 31, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: AIevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $60,442
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $65,443

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,442 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in AI
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x714d…c177backed No	13c	3,350$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.51	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.18per pick	16cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec4d…be21backed No	17c	3,012$512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$512.07	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No	8c	1,887$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.4	95	25.3%24 W · 71 L	-13.3wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2e8e…5b53backed No	16c	1,736$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.72	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No	4c	1,584$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.44	178	24.2%43 W · 135 L	-12.4wins	-0.07per pick	31cpaid	-56%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No	9c	1,371$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.41	70	32.9%23 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes	78c	1,242$967 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$274.82	117	23.9%28 W · 89 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No	4c	1,082$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.61	54	20.4%11 W · 43 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd096…de63backed No	14c	892.85$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	4c	800$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	457	38.9%178 W · 279 L	-31.3wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No	4c	800$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	48	27.1%13 W · 35 L	-3.8wins	-0.08per pick	35cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No	5c	744$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.88	85	47.1%40 W · 45 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No	4c	725.09$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.66	66	56.1%37 W · 29 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No	4c	705$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.91	198	18.7%37 W · 161 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked No	9c	681.38$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.32	57	33.3%19 W · 38 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No	34c	671.22$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.89	301	27.2%82 W · 219 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa801…7310backed No	8c	604.13$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	13c	554.09$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.41	194	32%62 W · 132 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	84	33.3%28 W · 56 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4867…a6f8backed No	3c	475.43$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.28	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+30.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1694…8badbacked No	23c	455.97$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.87	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No	19c	388.25$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.48	415	7.2%30 W · 385 L	-26.1wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-69%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	7c	333$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.97	1,363	6.8%93 W · 1,270 L	-20.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No	32c	331.52$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.94	50	26%13 W · 37 L	-10.6wins	-0.21per pick	47cpaid	-59.3%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0x529d…6381backed No	13c	300$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No	43c	283$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.61	125	33.6%42 W · 83 L	-12.2wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No	5c	250.67$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.53	217	13.4%29 W · 188 L	+8.1wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No	21c	244.06$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.56	87	41.4%36 W · 51 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No	8c	213.02$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.25	54	40.7%22 W · 32 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No	11c	210.88$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.73	74	48.6%36 W · 38 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked No	10c	168$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	81	23.5%19 W · 62 L	-9.6wins	-0.12per pick	35cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No	34c	165$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.45	72	23.6%17 W · 55 L	-8.1wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No	19c	161.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.49	53	49.1%26 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No	15c	160$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	80	33.8%27 W · 53 L	-7.5wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b27…4c31backed Yes	67c	160$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.8	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9868…b6d4backed No	33c	158.63$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No	11c	151.23$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.82	138	8%11 W · 127 L	-5.7wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No	26c	150$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.25	288	26.7%77 W · 211 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c11…99a1backed No	16c	150$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-2.5wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No	19c	149.46$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.89	220	19.5%43 W · 177 L	-11.7wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-46.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58bb…a539backed No	13c	140$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5942…90f3backed Yes	65c	139$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.06	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	62cpaid	+14%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No	8c	137$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	70	41.4%29 W · 41 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No	18c	131.26$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.43	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-4.3wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No	23c	120.19$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.05	294	30.6%90 W · 204 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	76c	116.93$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.56	893	17.1%153 W · 740 L	-144.9wins	-0.16per pick	33cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	32-0.16 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No	25c	111.14$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.31	79	43%34 W · 45 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e9…bf77backed No	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-2.0wins	-0.15per pick	46cpaid	-48.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0e0…016abacked No	33c	100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-3.7wins	-0.23per pick	36cpaid	-83.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x74aa…2c3fbacked No	33c	100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-2.3wins	-0.21per pick	39cpaid	-76.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	24c	81.51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.56	185	44.3%82 W · 103 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No	14c	80$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-3.0wins	-0.10per pick	41cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No	13c	80$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	58	48.3%28 W · 30 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed Yes	67c	78.39$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.87	49	38.8%19 W · 30 L	-4.4wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No	14c	72.35$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	164	18.9%31 W · 133 L	-21.7wins	-0.13per pick	32cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No	24c	60.03$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.16	49	46.9%23 W · 26 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc399…53abbacked No	40c	59.67$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.11	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.28per pick	47cpaid	+79.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes	50c	53.65$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.83	34	52.9%18 W · 16 L	+3.7wins	+0.11per pick	42cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x959e…0315backed No	37c	53.41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.76	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-2.9wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No	24c	51.58$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.38	64	39.1%25 W · 39 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No	31c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeced…c598backed No	58c	50$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	32	78.1%25 W · 7 L	+5.8wins	+0.18per pick	60cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfec1…b807backed No	34c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c47…37e8backed No	32c	49.56$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.65	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No	45c	32.79$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.64	37	43.2%16 W · 21 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd49e…b6c2backed Yes	69c	30.22$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.37	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.38per pick	62cpaid	+64.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No	37c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes	67c	24$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	256	32.8%84 W · 172 L	-24.1wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6d39…3e88backed Yes	55c	22$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.9	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes	65c	18.49$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.47	109	38.5%42 W · 67 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?this page
Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
Will Meituan have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
Will Moonshot have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?No won
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event