Mls · resolved market
Will Chicago Fire FC vs. CF Montréal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc11220c040de6b3c144d9dfd78ea303d7a1ea0a2a956e99d67244cc18bca6b15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Yes | 21c | 2,714$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 78c | 2,539$1,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.48 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 22c | 2,050$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.73 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 21c | 1,578$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.95 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 22c | 1,174$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.28 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 78c | 763.94$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.16 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0652…9134backed Yes | 27c | 503$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 78c | 335.16$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.14 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 21c | 281.26$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 78c | 255$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +5.0wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 21c | 152.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…94b8backed Yes | 17c | 147.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 23c | 104.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 21c | 95.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Yes | 22c | 86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…e951backed No | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 19c | 61.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 23c | 60.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee2…e71dbacked No | 80c | 60.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 79c | 54.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 22c | 50.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…fd63backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17dc…aff8backed Yes | 25c | 47.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5045…c44dbacked Yes | 23c | 43.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 73c | 34.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…cf14backed No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…80bbbacked No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 80c | 20.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 78c | 15.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chicago Fire FC vs. CF Montréal end in a draw?this page
- Will CF Montréal win on 2026-02-28?No won
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-02-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.