Mls · resolved market
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-02-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3491b70f207f5087bf9ebfea480f55df388ba64bf5cc6134147790f3827dc4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Yes | 18c | 4,444$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.92 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 19c | 1,202$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.25 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 5c | 1,054$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.07 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d7…68dfbacked Yes | 17c | 900.15$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.72 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 17c | 786$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.62 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 5c | 480.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 17c | 379.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Yes | 17c | 250.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 13c | 211.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…d57bbacked Yes | 18c | 206.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x289b…714ebacked Yes | 19c | 175.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 17c | 149.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 89 | 19.1%17 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 17c | 123.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…aef1backed Yes | 21c | 73.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 17c | 69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae2…8d89backed Yes | 20c | 51.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…45e9backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Montréal win on 2026-02-28?this page
- Will Chicago Fire FC vs. CF Montréal end in a draw?No won
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-02-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.