Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-02-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb48e97516a68591de91518c5e0bd31a0ee5ec7d0f77d3560cae04f6d84d2ecb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 37c | 10,436$3,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,538.09 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked No | 62c | 8,060$4,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,997.19 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 67c | 7,500$5,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,024.96 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 44c | 3,642$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,042.36 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 33c | 2,506$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,678.75 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 66c | 2,083$1,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.55 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed No | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed No | 22c | 1,834$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.21 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 75c | 1,662$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.12 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 32c | 1,470$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.6 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7d55backed No | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed No | 9c | 999.1$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.92 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0652…9134backed Yes | 58c | 859.99$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 63c | 660.38$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.29 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…534ebacked Yes | 38c | 599.33$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 27c | 552.57$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.69 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 43c | 435.66$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.78 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 38c | 400$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 56c | 372.31$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.45 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 6c | 327.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 78c | 293.8$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 25c | 274.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 33c | 227.27$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.27 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 60c | 225.91$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.36 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked No | 61c | 214.23$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.68 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 34c | 178.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa81…44a9backed No | 68c | 176.47$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 59c | 170.02$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed No | 10c | 165.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed No | 65c | 160$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed No | 41c | 145.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 63c | 133.66$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 68c | 112.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 33c | 110.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 63c | 108.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 34c | 89.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 53c | 84.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked No | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8c…2882backed Yes | 39c | 77.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked No | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Yes | 39c | 70.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed No | 67c | 70$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed No | 62c | 68.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 37c | 67.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…8319backed Yes | 37c | 62.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 33c | 62.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…3544backed No | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 64c | 43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…8cffbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…bf8abacked Yes | 58c | 32.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Yes | 77c | 30.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 67c | 30.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 74c | 22.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a6…1961backed No | 65c | 18.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-02-27?this page
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw?No won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-02-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.