TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-02-27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,106
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,262

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,106 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3283…338bbacked Yes24c7,278$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,72010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No63c6,037$3,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,234.433,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Yes42c4,754$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0008363.9%53 W · 30 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No58c3,055$1,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.811,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed No64c2,393$1,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.323650%18 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No63c2,303$1,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.181,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No60c1,877$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.9162452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4844…32c9backed Yes41c1,160$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4762934.5%10 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-29.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Yes2c1,050$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x14c2…7d55backed Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804734%16 W · 31 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a0…92dfbacked Yes40c933.15$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.022339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes41c895.11$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36734547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Yes10c752.15$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758950.6%45 W · 44 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes36c700$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25222747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No79c560.3$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.411,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc550…8e46backed Yes38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1901936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes35c454.96$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.227328.8%21 W · 52 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked No59c451.21$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.4438646.9%181 W · 205 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed No58c400$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16831145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9f3…0979backed Yes35c347.4$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.5960%0 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes15c318.43$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2313129.8%39 W · 92 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Yes34c305.03$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7153645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4588…d206backed Yes34c299.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1022240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No59c282.13$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.6756547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Yes37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019055.3%105 W · 85 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb881…20a1backed Yes37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005160.8%31 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fa8…ebb4backed Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.37per pick57cpaid-54.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No62c247.66$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.0978248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64ff…8f70backed Yes40c247.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006149.2%30 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+19.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No60c214.61$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.7256951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x976a…5fbbbacked Yes35c214.29$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed No65c199.99$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff6b…c91abacked Yes42c185.79$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.05633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf800…bdbabacked Yes39c180$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.211543.5%50 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f6…4892backed Yes39c179.09$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706645.5%30 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No61c154.58$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.5581732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3036…15c2backed Yes40c150$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608251.2%42 W · 40 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c89…526abacked Yes35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd87…30a6backed Yes40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+27.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e5f…849cbacked Yes40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No60c123.47$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3955058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedc6…05dfbacked No61c118.25$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.121172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.27per pick46cpaid+62.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5a50…ea80backed Yes35c116.46$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.765038%19 W · 31 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6508…1077backed Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.77341.1%30 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323215.6%5 W · 27 L-5.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-43.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x48e3…b088backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60c2…8052backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345742.1%24 W · 33 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Yes39c99.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Yes39c90.8$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4163645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8c…2882backed Yes35c89.23$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.23450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+25.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No73c79.34$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5539857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9154…8f2dbacked Yes37c77.77$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.775942.4%25 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes39c73.77$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.774860.4%29 W · 19 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x452f…b277backed Yes40c73.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.55945.8%27 W · 32 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76c…1c3cbacked Yes41c73.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304459.1%26 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c69…66afbacked Yes38c70$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.61258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+18.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes36c69.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520436.3%74 W · 130 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa639…f5e8backed Yes35c65.71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2314758.5%86 W · 61 L+15.9wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+30.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed No66c60.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.395054%27 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x78dc…d861backed No67c58.87$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.432100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+69%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed No59c58.73$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0688…c1cebacked Yes37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes39c54$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.067332.9%24 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes32c50.28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3440744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2010454.8%57 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d11…0c08backed Yes36c49.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.861844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Yes34c49.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.727847.4%37 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe704…7558backed Yes41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017855.6%99 W · 79 L+0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2062…6be2backed Yes41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202321.7%5 W · 18 L-4.2wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-53.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x99f8…f40ebacked Yes44c45.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8566…5b98backed Yes35c42.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+31%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x320f…1420backed Yes38c40.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.682552%13 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb589…8e2ebacked Yes38c40.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.451060%6 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes37c40.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159856.1%55 W · 43 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5558…f9c4backed Yes41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.41241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x694c…eb70backed Yes35c34.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122218.2%4 W · 18 L-4.4wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-45.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9efa…0406backed Yes39c25.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5004…c07bbacked No61c24.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.592365.2%15 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed No60c24.06$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed No63c23.62$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6630647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5046…7676backed No62c23.12$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.741546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf158…aa4bbacked No59c21.08$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.641861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+39.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x239b…f8bfbacked No78c20.74$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.547452.7%39 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed No57c19.98$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5920545.9%94 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.