Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-03-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48351b3ff9deeeff6fecdf2585c8ead99fb1bae2ffa2e068b2ba2201219783f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,975 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x14f7…232cbacked Yes | 13c | 6,805$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,904.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed No | 49c | 5,720$2,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,818.26 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 65c | 4,379$2,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,859.64 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 51c | 3,176$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,556.1 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 49c | 2,803$1,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.45 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed Yes | 77c | 2,717$2,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.15 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 71c | 1,865$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.72 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed No | 48c | 957.29$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.78 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0652…9134backed Yes | 78c | 867.12$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 47c | 815.67$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.43 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 24c | 776.14$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.58 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked Yes | 34c | 511.95$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.63 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 66c | 382.06$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.83 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 38c | 319.33$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.98 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa349…81ecbacked No | 53c | 306.02$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 50c | 304.52$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.85 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…8132backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 14cpaid | +188.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecf9…9372backed Yes | 45c | 298.78$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 25c | 287.04$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…3d33backed Yes | 68c | 264.71$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.71 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 44c | 227.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.44 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…c029backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed No | 52c | 200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…bb2fbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 39c | 189.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.19 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed No | 45c | 164.3$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.74 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 23c | 153.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…237dbacked Yes | 71c | 141.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed No | 42c | 135.28$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0866…a1d5backed No | 59c | 135.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…2719backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 76c | 130.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 19c | 123.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.28 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd1…1e86backed Yes | 17c | 118.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 41c | 117.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3457…0161backed Yes | 50c | 115.69$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f9…cd95backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 17c | 83.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.06 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 44c | 69.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 76c | 65.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Yes | 67c | 62.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 34c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…5b2ebacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6229…1743backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 34c | 38.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Yes | 32c | 35.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…27d6backed Yes | 39c | 31.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…876dbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0d…b02fbacked Yes | 72c | 27.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e0…fe90backed Yes | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -61%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…e75fbacked Yes | 66c | 23.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed No | 67c | 22.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 54c | 22.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 60c | 21.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-03-08?this page
- Will Hannover 96 vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth end in a draw?No won
- Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-03-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.