Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d47a4108f37b0f4dce7481a58c9fbdb047fe1d61396ec5b35728551c9afbd95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,929 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76bc…db0abacked Yes | 24c | 7,308$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,754 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 7,203$1,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,591.65 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 24c | 6,543$1,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,568.8 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…9c28backed No | 76c | 5,686$4,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcddb…0d22backed No | 76c | 4,976$3,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,194.18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc4…803dbacked Yes | 25c | 4,914$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95a9…4352backed No | 76c | 4,737$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 4,404$3,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.07 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 77c | 3,153$2,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.38 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…c02bbacked Yes | 24c | 1,854$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c71…22dbbacked Yes | 22c | 1,832$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4a…2881backed Yes | 24c | 1,397$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…cd41backed No | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.02 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 71cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 16c | 1,250$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.4 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 76c | 708.87$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.13 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed Yes | 22c | 552$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.42 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe189…13fbbacked Yes | 25c | 500.29$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…fa6bbacked No | 76c | 473.52$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f99…db70backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b81…b5a2backed No | 77c | 450$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99cd…8b45backed No | 76c | 450$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…89ccbacked Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 5c | 392.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…c86cbacked Yes | 7c | 355.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 7c | 345$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes | 23c | 319.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0652…9134backed Yes | 8c | 265$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 25c | 245$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Yes | 24c | 244.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc64f…7940backed Yes | 8c | 210.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 24c | 206.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcb…575ebacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +127.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…eaf5backed No | 76c | 199.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes | 7c | 191.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +193.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 19c | 156.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9c…5a62backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142e…f6e4backed Yes | 7c | 145.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…3ca0backed Yes | 24c | 136.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 24c | 133$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 119$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Yes | 13c | 117$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 25c | 116$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc09…21d0backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 75c | 99.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 25c | 95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x791d…c32bbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…267abacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6de…12f7backed Yes | 21c | 78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b7…de43backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed No | 77c | 65.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 24c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…da69backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2f…a3d8backed Yes | 24c | 46.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c60…f1e3backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2951…ef00backed No | 77c | 39.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…0390backed No | 77c | 35.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked No | 77c | 32.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked No | 77c | 32.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd3…bd7fbacked No | 77c | 19.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 75cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 77c | 13.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf222…c4b1backed No | 77c | 13.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-03-07?No won
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.