TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-03-08?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$702,543

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $702,543 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 245 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf6d9…305ebacked No62c559,172$346,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212,504.31475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+60.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Yes38c150,000$57,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,0005945.8%27 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Yes38c100,000$38,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,0004042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes38c55,229$21,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,010.8934144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes37c54,687$20,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,243.2475142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7af9…b408backed Yes38c36,849$14,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,002.62633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes38c32,982$12,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,580.273,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes38c31,914$12,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,127.3217251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked No61c24,471$14,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,543.6527138.4%104 W · 167 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes38c20,418$7,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,794.041,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Yes38c19,721$7,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,493.9610553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90a1…73d6backed Yes40c12,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8001957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes41c10,368$4,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,249.7433945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked Yes38c8,584$3,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,262250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No59c8,189$4,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,359.5816647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes38c7,899$3,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,012.3156547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Yes37c6,955$2,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,575.4819139.8%76 W · 115 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes38c5,067$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,950.2169851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Yes38c5,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,900366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+46.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes39c5,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,95033244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Yes38c4,212$1,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600.5610154.5%55 W · 46 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Yes38c2,631$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.787254.2%39 W · 33 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c6c…4f80backed Yes39c2,564$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Yes38c2,500$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9502661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc920…7914backed Yes40c2,220$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86f4…40d5backed No58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.996256.5%35 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed No60c1,931$1,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.0922047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x597e…cd70backed Yes38c1,842$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed No59c1,695$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.252263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes24c1,653$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.081,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed No61c1,519$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.8635856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4cd9…a643backed Yes38c1,482$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.067251.4%37 W · 35 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Yes5c1,481$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3281732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0644…05debacked Yes38c1,347$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.176043.3%26 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Yes38c1,316$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x142e…f6e4backed Yes38c1,300$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4941553.3%8 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes40c1,182$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.9934547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0652…9134backed Yes6c1,074$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.45825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-62.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Yes39c1,013$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.3253645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4108248.8%40 W · 42 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Yes38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38015847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes40c999.98$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.9924050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No46c999.73$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.461,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes38c921.05$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35038055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ffe…ce5bbacked No61c915.01$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.07742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Yes39c866$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.7430054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Yes38c813$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.942962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9834…ca19backed Yes4c758.36$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.12520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Yes38c750$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2851258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1a6…afa6backed Yes37c593.57$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked Yes39c512.82$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Yes38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1904465.9%29 W · 15 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+31%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21048146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Yes42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21063645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21049647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b1a…30d8backed Yes41c487.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Yes6c463$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.35650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3100…9bc9backed Yes38c450$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-62.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ae5…f51dbacked Yes41c450$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.252339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6de0…f7f1backed No65c449.08$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+88%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No58c427.42$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.8762452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4db3…c1eabacked Yes25c404.25$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.743342.4%14 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+90.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Yes39c400$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15716343.6%71 W · 92 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed No65c400$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1401957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Yes38c395.52$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15018840.4%76 W · 112 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cb1…5286backed Yes40c380$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.93246.9%15 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x55d9…d702backed Yes4c372.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+321.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes18c340.75$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6522332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe8b…4154backed Yes38c331.58$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Yes38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1145326.4%14 W · 39 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52d8…99aebacked Yes40c287$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.85655.4%31 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes30c268.9$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9930647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Yes38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010554.3%57 W · 48 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6e7…884cbacked Yes39c262.43$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.351637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2961…cfcfbacked Yes41c258.54$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1066845.6%31 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Yes38c253.46$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5225850.4%130 W · 128 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Yes38c250$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.133554.3%19 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x31bf…f08dbacked Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb7…7a94backed Yes41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010946.8%51 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9453…6952backed Yes41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009250%46 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Yes41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017549.1%86 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x924a…bd60backed Yes41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes42c240$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.810942.2%46 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Yes42c235$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.715244.1%67 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes41c231.39$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7116045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d3…8a20backed Yes70c222.39$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.541154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Yes42c222$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.194337.2%16 W · 27 L-5.6wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-27.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0a21…50d3backed Yes41c212.29$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Yes38c211$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.756553.8%35 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c17…0458backed Yes38c209.13$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.47450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc29…5fcebacked No59c201.59$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.75250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf800…bdbabacked Yes38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7611543.5%50 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e6…696bbacked Yes40c198.27$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb792…1658backed Yes42c196.32$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43a6…96c1backed No60c192.52$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8043…5f89backed No59c186.43$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3036…15c2backed Yes41c183.24$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758251.2%42 W · 40 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe576…6950backed Yes42c176.49$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd452…5eefbacked Yes42c175.56$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.68475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.