Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e42a3343be4e87b37ecdc48268717bb4d7617de973a42817834956bc528f4c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,168 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 6,714$2,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,006.39 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…34e4backed No | 69c | 6,499$4,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,014.7 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 75c | 3,208$2,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.25 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0652…9134backed Yes | 25c | 2,399$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…cd41backed No | 68c | 1,971$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.81 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 71cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0c…bcebbacked Yes | 31c | 1,500$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 31c | 1,363$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.68 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed No | 69c | 1,301$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.45 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 31c | 1,300$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 69c | 1,212$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.72 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 71c | 877.38$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.67 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Yes | 32c | 625.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 69c | 502.07$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.62 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 71c | 499.67$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.9 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 74c | 484.58$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.85 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 3c | 473.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 80c | 460.01$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.22 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa71e…ce92backed Yes | 29c | 422.38$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed No | 69c | 362$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.22 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Yes | 31c | 317.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…a861backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 68c | 286$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.1 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 28c | 238.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Yes | 32c | 187.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Yes | 29c | 185.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -46%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 10c | 184$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263b…0200backed No | 72c | 161.88$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a21…50d3backed Yes | 29c | 155.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 70c | 153.73$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1d…7e54backed No | 72c | 152.88$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Yes | 29c | 128$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Yes | 30c | 117.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x888e…153abacked No | 72c | 107.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 29c | 101.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb070…4761backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…526abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd745…223abacked No | 74c | 91.03$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 71c | 85.77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d60…8cc1backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +19%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 15c | 77.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 21c | 73.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31bf…f08dbacked Yes | 31c | 72.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 71c | 68.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…f2efbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 31c | 58.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 77c | 57.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…da69backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Yes | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…2db8backed No | 70c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 31c | 40.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…5891backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e66…e1b2backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed Yes | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 30c | 34.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x284d…c7f1backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x287d…4867backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…33d5backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked No | 72c | 20.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b38…a036backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…840bbacked No | 70c | 15.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…4e14backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e3…4bd5backed No | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-03-08?No won
- Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-03-08?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.