Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-02-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44e8374198e4f35d171f13b4eb4ab913a89804530113560702e14fcf3909cd4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $161,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $223,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8627…5382backed Yes | 18c | 25,000$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 18c | 5,290$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.11 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes | 18c | 4,444$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 18c | 4,287$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.34 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 2c | 4,136$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbe…f9e5backed Yes | 21c | 3,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 1c | 2,874$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Yes | 4c | 2,725$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.98 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 3c | 2,618$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.26 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Yes | 20c | 1,590$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 18c | 1,499$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.46 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 80c | 1,200$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…f52fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Yes | 19c | 918.75$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.56 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 18c | 889.58$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.42 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 18c | 609.05$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.63 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 17c | 535.47$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.19 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…a861backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…82f2backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac1…a0f2backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca61…f06abacked Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0652…9134backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0251…41edbacked Yes | 16c | 448.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Yes | 19c | 324.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecad…875cbacked Yes | 19c | 315$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 18c | 305.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…625dbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…7aaabacked Yes | 19c | 300$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 17c | 257.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…1e94backed Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…b054backed Yes | 23c | 239.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3944…6470backed Yes | 19c | 209.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes | 18c | 170$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…4f62backed Yes | 22c | 151.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…8c18backed Yes | 19c | 149.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…45e9backed Yes | 18c | 136$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yes | 17c | 121.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13b5…2c2cbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…26efbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb301…79ddbacked Yes | 22c | 88.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 17c | 79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…27d6backed Yes | 17c | 78.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Yes | 18c | 70.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Yes | 18c | 64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228c…0fb0backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1e…5a2abacked No | 78c | 32.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab8…d621backed No | 78c | 26.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked No | 80c | 23.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 79c | 19.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-02-28?this page
- Will SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw?No won
- Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-02-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.