Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff65affc24d93f6ba1b86e09ae6ecc00d3929b9f49887e748a8cc539dad0bb3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $219,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72b4…7d67backed No | 78c | 47,000$36,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,340.39 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 31,037$6,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,803.78 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 1c | 29,500$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.6 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Yes | 1c | 11,990$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.9 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 22c | 5,085$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.45 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…0525backed No | 78c | 3,846$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 16c | 3,071$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.95 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 22c | 2,778$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.58 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…4c87backed Yes | 22c | 1,966$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.53 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,702$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.54 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,700$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.94 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 20c | 1,199$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.04 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 22c | 1,082$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 1c | 1,046$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 77c | 1,016$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.52 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b2…fb99backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf034…d5a8backed No | 78c | 851$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 22c | 609.05$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.99 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 77c | 518.99$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.91 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x806b…5cd8backed Yes | 24c | 428.17$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.76 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 317.16$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d9…6964backed Yes | 24c | 314.71$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f4…40d5backed No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x093a…1b3fbacked Yes | 38c | 263.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb4…90f3backed No | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bde…b181backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 15c | 188.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 23c | 174.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 21c | 172.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 20c | 166.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 78c | 158.67$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 15c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed No | 77c | 133.35$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 22c | 122$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 17c | 116.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed No | 76c | 115.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 79c | 114.13$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9734…8f5ebacked Yes | 23c | 107.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…a7ecbacked Yes | 22c | 103.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…45e9backed Yes | 22c | 98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 23c | 87.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a0…da0dbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…cf96backed Yes | 22c | 71.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb653…f400backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes | 22c | 66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…e951backed No | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 74cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Yes | 24c | 61.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 201 | 53.7%108 W · 93 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 22c | 61.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5501…e914backed No | 79c | 55.6$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…da69backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2944…031abacked Yes | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed No | 75c | 32.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…1e6bbacked No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-02-28?No won
- Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-02-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.