Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Arsenal (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8db659542b5bcdf42ebd83803be6fcc6a08bdab7c3f7d713b7280e429701641a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Crystal Palaceof Arsenal, Crystal Palace
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Crystal Palace | 55c | 31,756$17,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,241.29 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Arsenal | 45c | 20,000$9,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,000 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…8f58backed Arsenal | 45c | 7,779$3,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500.55 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Crystal Palace | 54c | 6,608$3,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,039.9 | 218 | 53.2%116 W · 102 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Arsenal | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Arsenal | 45c | 4,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9287…ba8cbacked Crystal Palace | 57c | 3,509$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebf…dc08backed Arsenal | 43c | 3,500$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Crystal Palace | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.99 | 459 | 36.2%166 W · 293 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Crystal Palace | 56c | 1,702$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.98 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Crystal Palace | 55c | 1,200$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.99 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Arsenal | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05bb…8ef9backed Arsenal | 44c | 681.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…22b6backed Arsenal | 45c | 666.68$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…62efbacked Arsenal | 18c | 499.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0727…ec27backed Arsenal | 46c | 434.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf32…aecbbacked Arsenal | 46c | 360.87$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Arsenal | 46c | 350$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63aa…c5c8backed Arsenal | 29c | 276.1$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Arsenal | 46c | 236.96$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.32 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee4…8c98backed Arsenal | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Crystal Palace | 56c | 222$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 293 | 43.7%128 W · 165 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5350…c52cbacked Arsenal | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Arsenal | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Arsenal | 50c | 199.18$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.46 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Arsenal | 46c | 195.65$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Arsenal | 47c | 107.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d3…d153backed Crystal Palace | 55c | 99.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Crystal Palace | 52c | 96.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Crystal Palace | 76c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Arsenal | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d56…71dabacked Arsenal | 46c | 78.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Arsenal | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…37dabacked Arsenal | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3279…a922backed Crystal Palace | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2abb…aeccbacked Arsenal | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab4…a62dbacked Crystal Palace | 58c | 43.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Crystal Palace | 54c | 40.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +50%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…c1d1backed Arsenal | 45c | 34.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc09a…d577backed Arsenal | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…3762backed Arsenal | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -7.9wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfba4…974cbacked Crystal Palace | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arsenal (-1.5)this page
- Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.