Premier League · resolved market
Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebe9dc1ba35529c7b79475367ee186698aa675c6103e7d601c3951dd51c37c9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Under | 44c | 75,000$33,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,999.98 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 58,449$32,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,731.31 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4740…030bbacked Under | 45c | 27,500$12,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,125 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x421e…4d4dbacked Over | 55c | 24,000$13,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…282fbacked Under | 45c | 11,000$4,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,050 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…d3dcbacked Over | 56c | 5,449$3,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,051.44 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x368b…5958backed Over | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…76adbacked Over | 55c | 3,600$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…5500backed Over | 55c | 3,500$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 56c | 3,486$1,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,952 | 202 | 46.5%94 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 56c | 3,436$1,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,924.33 | 218 | 53.2%116 W · 102 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Over | 56c | 3,214$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.76 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f43…04dbbacked Over | 55c | 2,400$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 54c | 1,571$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.88 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Under | 43c | 1,200$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.99 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Under | 49c | 1,048$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81c1…189bbacked Over | 42c | 1,047$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…8086backed Under | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 175 | 44%77 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 43c | 666.99$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.51 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Under | 47c | 555$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.15 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Over | 57c | 540$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.8 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked Over | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Over | 56c | 509.25$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.27 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…1559backed Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…9b0ebacked Over | 53c | 499.99$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…d280backed Over | 56c | 351.79$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac38…1cc0backed Over | 50c | 298.9$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa740…ee18backed Over | 56c | 280$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed Over | 56c | 266.07$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 58c | 169$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.02 | 395 | 61.3%242 W · 153 L | -21.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…3e87backed Over | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfb…2398backed Over | 53c | 125$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Over | 55c | 75.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Under | 43c | 62.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 414 | 37.9%157 W · 257 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…7637backed Over | 59c | 54.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8be…2ef8backed Over | 55c | 54.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8009…ca1bbacked Under | 46c | 47.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.36per pick | 46cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 58c | 43.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…4b52backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc8…b60ebacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47fe…ab9abacked Over | 56c | 26.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 57c | 26.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Under | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba4…974cbacked Under | 48c | 25.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 55c | 22.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…1483backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e90…1c09backed Over | 56c | 18.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace: O/U 2.5this page
- Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: Arsenal (-1.5)Crystal Palace won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.