Premier League · resolved market
Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63edd16623df3f2119e0e9d347c3e92e503c4c719ca2631fe383a42ab39f5f31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 50c | 644.51$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.34 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 49c | 457.82$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.68 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…792bbacked Yes | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 49c | 323.69$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.08 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Yes | 51c | 258$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.8 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…1559backed Yes | 51c | 246.06$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.49 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa14…ebb0backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…a0fbbacked No | 51c | 130$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67aa…b88cbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal (-1.5)Crystal Palace won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.