Us Politics · resolved market
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17401e73f3c44b3c03235227335616a09db70dbf6ec1e4dfed3ed70f4bd93625
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Down | 35c | 3,949$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.16 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Up | 55c | 1,883$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.08 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Up | 73c | 1,824$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.46 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 77c | 1,515$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.15 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Down | 9c | 715.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Down | 9c | 700$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Up | 75c | 662$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.52 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 27c | 511.9$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.36 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Up | 61c | 364$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.56 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Down | 21c | 246.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Down | 40c | 205.02$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.77 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Up | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Up | 53c | 187.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1067…cdeabacked Down | 59c | 131.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Down | 46c | 122.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9feb…d61dbacked Down | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b75…b1a8backed Up | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Up | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Down | 26c | 70.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…37dabacked Down | 36c | 70.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Up | 59c | 60.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Up | 41c | 53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba69…0210backed Up | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…1574backed Down | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…a7a1backed Up | 69c | 43.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…8c0dbacked Up | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Up | 52c | 39.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…abd9backed Up | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3137…6eedbacked Up | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Down | 45c | 31.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Down | 47c | 31.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe483…b5a0backed Down | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Up | 51c | 30.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04fc…53bdbacked Down | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee5…198bbacked Up | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…5f61backed Down | 47c | 24.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Up | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Up | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.