Movies · resolved market
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dcdfe9b4bf27c545210332cdafc53e0b66f65593d8001a649e2c86ed6295929
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 1c | 2,693$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 15c | 2,546$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.19 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…bdbabacked No | 8c | 1,468$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.86 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c80…6aeabacked No | 1c | 1,211$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed No | 23c | 951.58$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.86 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c4…92c0backed No | 12c | 871.23$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd21…007abacked Yes | 77c | 744.07$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed No | 7c | 428.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed No | 14c | 392.37$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 316.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 7c | 297.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 12c | 279.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 7c | 228.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 207.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…d82cbacked No | 11c | 173$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 8c | 160.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x281e…c94abacked No | 11c | 138.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed No | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?this page
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.