Movies · resolved market
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3c42c6ae8f275e8a0b6a24dd0f9c3c4924b8bfcd2f2f22273c16b555061c7ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 3,300$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked No | 75c | 2,701$2,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.34 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…1081backed Yes | 45c | 1,102$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7e…33ffbacked Yes | 34c | 920.03$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Yes | 11c | 859.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…641fbacked Yes | 2c | 808.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…bb60backed Yes | 6c | 454.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed No | 58c | 376.9$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.45 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yes | 41c | 350$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed No | 69c | 344.61$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.38 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 15c | 332.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…fcd1backed No | 63c | 260.28$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 72c | 233.09$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8835…472cbacked Yes | 14c | 169.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…d82cbacked No | 53c | 165$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Yes | 31c | 162.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 134.82$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.54 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a5…5c44backed Yes | 42c | 118.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 57c | 111.69$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 47c | 110.34$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed Yes | 20c | 93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 25c | 91.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed No | 56c | 79.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…79c8backed No | 51c | 74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 23c | 56.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +22.0wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +88%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…aa14backed Yes | 29c | 54.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 37c | 53.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 52.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…a05cbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…e633backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…845dbacked No | 60c | 49.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1055…b628backed Yes | 40c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…cb8fbacked No | 59c | 41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…e270backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65cc…c949backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb5…ecbfbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b79…ebdcbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 43c | 39.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd3…30c5backed No | 62c | 38.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…e140backed Yes | 44c | 34.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d01…342dbacked Yes | 47c | 26.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…0764backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9779…c429backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?this page
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.