Movies · resolved market
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99d139b6138c67a4413b59c682a3f76e7082f55b8d0ea602eeeabb1f80a23350
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacb5…8330backed Yes | 16c | 5,668$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.8 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 27c | 2,801$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.1 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4999…cc96backed Yes | 9c | 2,733$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.51 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 10c | 2,624$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.49 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 2c | 2,580$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes | 22c | 1,467$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.26 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 80c | 847.08$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.7 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…09debacked Yes | 26c | 814$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 18c | 677$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.33 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 13c | 538.03$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaf…dbaabacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 21c | 485.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 34c | 474$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.76 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 74c | 419$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.94 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed No | 74c | 309$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.34 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes | 25c | 291$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed No | 75c | 291$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed No | 74c | 278$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.28 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 229.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed Yes | 26c | 202$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x223d…8ef3backed Yes | 52c | 192.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 25c | 155$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 67c | 146.23$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed Yes | 29c | 144.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked No | 79c | 142.5$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 73c | 128$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 75c | 118.6$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 73c | 111$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x412d…2e73backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…852fbacked Yes | 34c | 90.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed No | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 67c | 89.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 76c | 73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 37c | 64.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b8…ae7dbacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c50…8831backed Yes | 30c | 33.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -54%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed No | 67c | 31.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…2361backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" be the top US Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "The Investigation of Lucy Letby" be the top US Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "Tyler Perry's Joe's College Road Trip" be the top US Netflix movie this week?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.