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Bundesliga · resolved market

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$479,815
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$493,785

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $479,815 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 262 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd29…77aebacked Over51c200,052$101,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,829.966358.7%37 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Under49c82,653$40,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,232.623452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under51c76,739$38,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,831.763,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd12c…f2d4backed Under47c58,612$27,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,096.09650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90a1…73d6backed Over53c41,999$22,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,259.621957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Under49c40,000$19,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,4004650%23 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x036c…178dbacked Over51c40,000$20,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,399.991540%6 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Under49c30,436$14,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,522.361346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over52c17,422$9,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,069.1234144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3333…15bdbacked Over38c14,342$5,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,447.951376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+39.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xde18…83bcbacked Over54c14,000$7,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,559.96650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3102…187cbacked Over53c13,667$7,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,180.15152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Under48c12,825$6,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,709.544949%24 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b5e…83f8backed Under49c12,000$5,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,120250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…40d5backed Under49c11,913$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,113.272343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Under50c11,780$5,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,927.594658.7%27 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Under49c11,292$5,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,758.841330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-37.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Under48c9,853$4,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,097.4771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+41.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Under47c9,521$4,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,072.72846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under49c8,163$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,163.274647.8%22 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48e2…2a5fbacked Over53c7,658$4,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,058.82951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under46c7,157$3,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,839.941,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over53c5,900$3,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,12756547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over53c5,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,649.9833244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Under48c4,167$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,166.674254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38b0…060cbacked Over53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1201650%8 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad5c…664abacked Over52c3,846$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d1…cdc9backed Under61c3,324$2,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,296.17366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+55.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18f0…c0f5backed Over53c3,208$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Under46c3,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6207057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf42d…b35cbacked Over40c2,475$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.931631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-41%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over57c2,285$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3009856.1%55 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf425…be71backed Over36c2,209$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8002356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+37.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd871…6bbabacked Over46c2,159$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.651553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+55.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a1…2b76backed Over54c1,850$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.981450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over53c1,700$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.8735856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa445…6711backed Over53c1,615$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.944975.5%37 W · 12 L+8.2wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+26.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Under46c1,600$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.5816850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Under52c1,471$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.2919139.8%76 W · 115 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Over55c1,400$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7708143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x219e…14d9backed Over52c1,400$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72813461.9%83 W · 51 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under49c1,285$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.152,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Under47c1,276$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.287254.2%39 W · 33 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x86f4…40d5backed Over54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5406256.5%35 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed Over52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5201353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed Over52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5202339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Over51c986.65$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.137129.6%21 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over53c975$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.7518545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under61c845.76$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.631,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96d9…18a0backed Over54c800$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4333369.7%23 W · 10 L+5.7wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa774…005fbacked Under64c794$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.21471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6d1…62eabacked Under45c667$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.855145.1%23 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4306…618abacked Over55c623.64$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3435044%22 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Over41c609.76$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010863%68 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Over52c599.99$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3125455.6%30 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under62c535.12$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.651,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9de4…7f2ebacked Under55c460$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dad…a040backed Over55c455.07$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2506182%50 W · 11 L+7.9wins+0.13per pick69cpaid+18.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x00a0…bf76backed Over50c455$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.553740.5%15 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under51c447.27$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.1530647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under54c440.75$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.011,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dde…2c06backed Over54c430.82$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.975236.5%19 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under45c423.31$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.4514355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under47c415.42$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.3112157.9%70 W · 51 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdae0…836abacked Under48c401.86$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.86825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-46.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f37…281bbacked Over13c384.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503823.7%9 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a9…d343backed Over53c377.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-27.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x172d…6f3ebacked Over55c363.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009062.2%56 W · 34 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Over45c362.26$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.5510642.5%45 W · 61 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xacb5…d643backed Over56c330.35$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1855848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under49c323.39$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.5348658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over22c308.68$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9112832%41 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under47c301.92$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.3922047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under46c300$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16224258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd76…b935backed Over40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204254.8%23 W · 19 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+38.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Over53c288.05$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.735052%26 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under47c285.86$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.1181732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under46c271.79$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.822854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a42…2a7ebacked Over37c269.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f07…0170backed Over13c265$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.451127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-14.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Under46c264$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.562548%12 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Over54c263.56$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.321127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-51.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0189…cab8backed Over55c250$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.53167.7%21 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a40…afaabacked Over54c250$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1352755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Over30c245.94$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755339.6%21 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca4a…338abacked Over55c245.02$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.76742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Under47c242.66$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.2312858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012635.7%45 W · 81 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Over44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003339.4%13 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e1…1b07backed Under53c226.21$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.212556%14 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8090…42c1backed Over56c223.21$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1253351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over52c211.54$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11026433.3%88 W · 176 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01ee…6ab0backed Over52c206.81$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.54450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Under43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11431145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Over54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10811644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011857.6%68 W · 50 L+15.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2956…85debacked Over51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf343…fba6backed Over52c192.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.251241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb503…7552backed Over52c192.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.242050%10 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+35.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.