Bundesliga · resolved market
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef04d992cef733fcbf3f8ce0a12c14e2a4f6c72dc6f627007acf7eab2ac368e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 47c | 5,372$2,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,864.38 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…06c4backed Yes | 59c | 5,083$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 41c | 3,180$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,876.04 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 37c | 2,267$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.03 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…d343backed Yes | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe49b…2943backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed Yes | 74c | 500$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0866…a1d5backed Yes | 78c | 461.11$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.5 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 77c | 441.56$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 44c | 385.04$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.19 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 57c | 352.49$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.92 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 38c | 322$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.03 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Yes | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed Yes | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x322f…65a5backed No | 51c | 279.04$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 45c | 231.48$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.69 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Yes | 49c | 204.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…4ef0backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…0412backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed Yes | 52c | 193.92$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.84 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 50c | 153.74$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.62 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Yes | 76c | 149.7$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.77 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…af03backed Yes | 57c | 140$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 50c | 132.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Yes | 74c | 125$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…9fe6backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked No | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Yes | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b46…188ebacked Yes | 75c | 107$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 47c | 106.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…5bb8backed No | 37c | 102.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 55c | 101.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x534b…983fbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1871…59e6backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b0…627abacked Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…e801backed Yes | 46c | 91.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 35c | 87.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked No | 50c | 73.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8f…d581backed Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…0ef8backed Yes | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +43%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 50c | 51.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…4d9ebacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9390…6303backed Yes | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 53cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b77…1953backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…8a9ebacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…a67dbacked Yes | 50c | 38.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Yes | 76c | 35.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…ebecbacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6c…2bf7backed No | 50c | 28.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0497…c5e3backed Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 44c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 50c | 23.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2394…9312backed Yes | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec2f…c407backed Yes | 56c | 20.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb15d…8d89backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…4f62backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf1…23c6backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…54ddbacked No | 61c | 17.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Yes | 66c | 15.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…f5e9backed Yes | 74c | 14.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.