Bundesliga · resolved market
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84287d6757396480f9557f0a3489604e2c3775295cc991a12c499169fb001d7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 7,269$5,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,010.3 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb7…02d8backed Over | 30c | 1,656$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf425…be71backed Over | 28c | 1,429$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.22 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 27c | 1,250$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.93 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f4…40d5backed Over | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 29c | 999$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.71 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 18c | 621$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.78 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 76c | 351.78$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.77 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 69c | 244.06$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.66 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 72c | 194.98$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 72c | 186.57$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.17 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 31c | 161.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 14c | 126.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 68c | 119.31$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…1483backed Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec81…0a74backed Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Over | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 33c | 91.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ef…8e6fbacked Over | 31c | 81.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…456fbacked Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0568…d5a7backed Over | 33c | 76.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf10…557ebacked Over | 32c | 63.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Under | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 32c | 55.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 69c | 55.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4913…d01bbacked Under | 69c | 55.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 68c | 44.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 30c | 44.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8d…4465backed Under | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 30c | 43.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…45e9backed Under | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 70c | 32.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd162…72aabacked Under | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 74c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 74c | 17.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 201 | 53.7%108 W · 93 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.