Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf22423f3a4dc4be7e73cf3d58a117322a9b01a9431862bc9651de5814f05c3ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC St. Pauli 1910of TSG 1899 Hoffenheim, FC St. Pauli 1910
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee0d…57abbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 62c | 50,000$31,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,999.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 38c | 40,000$15,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,200 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 64c | 7,243$4,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,586.22 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 37c | 6,648$2,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,490.68 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…8fa4backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 38c | 3,158$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.03 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 17c | 1,207$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.48 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 40c | 999.99$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 35c | 889.05$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 41c | 853$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.73 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 59c | 816.27$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.23 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 38c | 789.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 62c | 600$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…32c9backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 42c | 479.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 38c | 473.68$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 72c | 369.08$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.11 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e51…ccbfbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 60c | 346.42$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fd…8149backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 60c | 342.23$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb858…39fbbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 41c | 331.76$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa499…fc85backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 41c | 331.49$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf131…69cabacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 37c | 275.45$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb503…7552backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 61c | 227.4$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.7 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…e9e3backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 29c | 196.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 38c | 172.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x010b…b668backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 39c | 162.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 63c | 151.52$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…f0c8backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 11c | 123.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 37c | 115.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 66c | 109$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a30…b094backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 30c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 38c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 60c | 60.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 64c | 57.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc317…4f97backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…6bf0backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 36c | 51.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f77…f9a7backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8142…f311backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c69…2e8bbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 36c | 49.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2062…6be2backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 33c | 48.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…45e9backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…1c10backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9734…8f5ebacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc3…1e73backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 72c | 26.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 201 | 53.7%108 W · 93 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed FC St. Pauli 1910 | 66c | 23.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 76c | 17.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked FC St. Pauli 1910 | 63c | 16.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)this page
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.