TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Hurricanes vs. Senators

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Senatorsof Hurricanes, Senators
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,680,029
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,740,014

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,680,029 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 628 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9976…67dabacked Senators46c450,000$207,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242,999.8819848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Hurricanes55c431,598$236,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236,755.6351550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Senators46c328,140$150,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177,622.861,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Senators46c173,476$79,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93,552.181,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Hurricanes54c149,225$80,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80,537.7940351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Hurricanes54c78,803$42,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,553.4236748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Hurricanes54c76,090$40,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,938.148549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Hurricanes53c56,604$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,00024349.8%121 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Hurricanes54c50,000$27,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,0008657%49 W · 37 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Hurricanes54c49,999$26,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,999.3567051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca1…dd13backed Hurricanes53c35,000$18,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,5501747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Hurricanes50c24,156$12,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,101.0112047.5%57 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Hurricanes54c18,888$10,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,199.5221850.9%111 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed Hurricanes54c16,000$8,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,639.911553%61 W · 54 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed Hurricanes54c15,454$8,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,360.14850%24 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x844e…4efdbacked Senators65c15,134$9,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,255.545276.9%40 W · 12 L+11.6wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+42.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Hurricanes52c14,559$7,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,635.87737.7%29 W · 48 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hurricanes53c13,538$7,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,204.12,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc38…1e98backed Senators49c10,167$4,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,170875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+46.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x19e7…1227backed Senators45c10,160$4,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,587.94560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Senators49c8,774$4,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,517.261,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Hurricanes28c8,240$2,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,298.9744848.9%219 W · 229 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Senators46c8,237$3,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,454.2220756.5%117 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Senators47c8,225$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,325.447258.3%42 W · 30 L+9.1wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+31.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Hurricanes54c8,000$4,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,32026058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf732…7c06backed Hurricanes54c8,000$4,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,32010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ef2…ccfbbacked Senators46c7,613$3,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,132.4112654.8%69 W · 57 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Hurricanes32c7,064$2,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,262.032,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Senators46c6,845$3,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,702.0340356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e16…9719backed Senators77c6,494$5,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,493.831258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Senators47c6,384$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,383.4952050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Senators45c6,331$2,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,479.518853.2%100 W · 88 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Hurricanes32c6,122$1,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,978.6889636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Senators47c5,902$2,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,128.1259450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Hurricanes51c5,877$2,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,978.7130944.7%138 W · 171 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Senators46c5,473$2,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,955.4211058.2%64 W · 46 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Senators47c5,409$2,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,868.1419759.4%117 W · 80 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Hurricanes54c5,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcab…b9bbbacked Hurricanes30c4,629$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,409.55040%20 W · 30 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-34.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Senators46c4,199$1,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,267.3376950.3%387 W · 382 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc58a…b8f8backed Hurricanes54c4,186$2,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,249.2215245.4%69 W · 83 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Hurricanes55c4,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20032151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Hurricanes54c4,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,16019353.9%104 W · 89 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Senators46c4,000$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,16030552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Hurricanes54c4,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,159.8939752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa624…eb73backed Senators45c3,986$1,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,192.3862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hurricanes53c3,907$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,080.11,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Hurricanes53c3,603$1,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,894.941,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Hurricanes0c3,602$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.012504.8%12 W · 238 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Senators45c3,161$1,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,738.4951452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Hurricanes37c3,094$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.373,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Hurricanes22c3,034$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.5733234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Hurricanes55c3,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6509751.5%50 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Senators46c3,000$1,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6351,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Senators45c3,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.981,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Hurricanes55c2,750$1,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,512.527547.6%131 W · 144 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Hurricanes39c2,702$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.1113343.6%58 W · 75 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Hurricanes29c2,552$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.1610947.7%52 W · 57 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Senators47c2,505$1,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.9937754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Hurricanes55c2,500$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,374.9927850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa5…e615backed Hurricanes57c2,276$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.96366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Hurricanes54c2,222$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.8486649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc947…3462backed Senators46c2,174$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.912360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4285…cfb5backed Hurricanes54c2,170$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.86758.2%39 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e59…beeebacked Senators46c2,109$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.944452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Hurricanes54c2,092$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.6831848.7%155 W · 163 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Hurricanes54c2,000$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,07058352.1%304 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe779…335ebacked Senators45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1004463.6%28 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Hurricanes54c2,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08020450%102 W · 102 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Hurricanes55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.9943548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Hurricanes53c1,889$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00019141.9%80 W · 111 L-9.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Senators54c1,857$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.2989355.5%496 W · 397 L+67.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x971d…f598backed Hurricanes55c1,804$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.24434.1%15 W · 29 L-6.0wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-29.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Senators46c1,800$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97230946.3%143 W · 166 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Senators46c1,762$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.4627044.4%120 W · 150 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Senators45c1,600$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8802250%11 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Hurricanes55c1,500$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.9860249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Senators65c1,482$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.751,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Senators46c1,474$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.129038.9%35 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Hurricanes53c1,458$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.7845955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Hurricanes28c1,430$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.410438.5%40 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Senators45c1,408$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.1817042.4%72 W · 98 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe02…1204backed Hurricanes55c1,405$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7735052%26 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Hurricanes54c1,387$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.7283149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Hurricanes41c1,376$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.152,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df1…6583backed Senators45c1,350$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.471050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Senators63c1,342$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.213240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41e0…a8e0backed Senators53c1,330$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.944652.2%24 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Hurricanes55c1,288$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.412355.3%68 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Hurricanes35c1,267$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.4527037.4%101 W · 169 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Senators47c1,266$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.1614062.1%87 W · 53 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x191e…dd9ebacked Hurricanes45c1,251$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.621225%3 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-48.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Hurricanes55c1,234$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.7133450.9%170 W · 164 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Hurricanes39c1,187$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.589231.5%29 W · 63 L-12.7wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-43.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb6ce…a992backed Hurricanes35c1,143$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40012328.5%35 W · 88 L-9.2wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-34.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Senators68c1,109$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.0111243.8%49 W · 63 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x05e1…85a2backed Senators46c1,087$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.963655.6%20 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Hurricanes37c1,035$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.1125635.9%92 W · 164 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Hurricanes55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55045749.2%225 W · 232 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Hurricanes54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54012947.3%61 W · 68 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.