TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Murray State Racers vs. Illinois State Redbirds

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Illinois State Redbirdsof Murray State Racers, Illinois State Redbirds
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,851
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,464

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,851 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7b47…d615backed Illinois State Redbirds55c10,876$5,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,936.674051.5%381 W · 359 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Murray State Racers44c7,544$3,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,357.0830249.3%149 W · 153 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Murray State Racers45c7,318$3,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,262.7212,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Illinois State Redbirds56c3,998$2,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,759.132259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d98…4d2dbacked Illinois State Redbirds59c2,144$1,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.432759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Illinois State Redbirds55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90089850%449 W · 449 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Murray State Racers45c1,378$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.972,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Illinois State Redbirds55c1,129$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.934943.3%151 W · 198 L-15.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-28.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Murray State Racers41c1,114$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.493,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e3…1080backed Murray State Racers43c894.99$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.842853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Illinois State Redbirds49c792.3$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.592,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Illinois State Redbirds54c768.1$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35637441.7%156 W · 218 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c54…09c4backed Murray State Racers47c686.09$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.46475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+36.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Illinois State Redbirds55c609$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.051,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Illinois State Redbirds53c585$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.9574649.2%367 W · 379 L+1.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Murray State Racers43c581.4$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Illinois State Redbirds55c545.45$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.4524847.6%118 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Murray State Racers42c537.52$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.761,23147%578 W · 653 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Illinois State Redbirds57c498.06$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.1781453.1%432 W · 382 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Murray State Racers45c438$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.113840.6%56 W · 82 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Murray State Racers45c430.38$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.6742339.2%166 W · 257 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Murray State Racers43c399.67$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.411,26043.3%545 W · 715 L+34.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Illinois State Redbirds58c392.77$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.3737947.8%181 W · 198 L-26.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9f8…e913backed Murray State Racers47c382.98$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18025049.2%123 W · 127 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Illinois State Redbirds55c320.61$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.274,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Murray State Racers42c300.31$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.482,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Murray State Racers44c294.2$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.551,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Illinois State Redbirds57c263.16$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.1693447.9%447 W · 487 L-19.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Murray State Racers50c262.01$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.012,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Murray State Racers51c259$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.0972248.8%352 W · 370 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Murray State Racers42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Murray State Racers40c225$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9050745.2%229 W · 278 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Murray State Racers43c212.76$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.494,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Murray State Racers51c208.64$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.013,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecd5…7330backed Illinois State Redbirds49c203.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.161353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Murray State Racers45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Murray State Racers43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8624737.7%93 W · 154 L+13.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Murray State Racers32c182.8$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.825337.5%95 W · 158 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e1…85a2backed Illinois State Redbirds58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.415154.9%28 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Murray State Racers39c160$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.493247.3%441 W · 491 L-22.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Murray State Racers45c155.56$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709945.5%45 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Murray State Racers47c142$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.162,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Murray State Racers19c127.01$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.191,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Murray State Racers44c112.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.689645.9%411 W · 485 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ee7…6760backed Murray State Racers47c109.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Murray State Racers45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4589146.2%412 W · 479 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b15…fa73backed Illinois State Redbirds53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4738351.7%198 W · 185 L+0.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Murray State Racers39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3993941.6%391 W · 548 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Murray State Racers42c88$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9661244.9%275 W · 337 L+1.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Illinois State Redbirds63c86.94$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.173,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Murray State Racers32c64.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8570936.1%256 W · 453 L-27.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Murray State Racers44c61$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8381528.8%235 W · 580 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8f…1f83backed Illinois State Redbirds56c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.464658.8%380 W · 266 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00e…73fabacked Illinois State Redbirds56c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.416551.5%85 W · 80 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c47…7a9fbacked Murray State Racers44c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.49035.6%32 W · 58 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b5…2e74backed Illinois State Redbirds57c58.49$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1719860.1%119 W · 79 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+18.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Murray State Racers45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.585248.8%416 W · 436 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Murray State Racers49c49.75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.292,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc653…bb8cbacked Illinois State Redbirds53c47.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1739050.5%197 W · 193 L-34.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Murray State Racers46c46.45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.371,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Murray State Racers45c43.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7499045.6%451 W · 539 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Illinois State Redbirds60c41.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6749849.6%247 W · 251 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b12…7a77backed Murray State Racers30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1252353.5%280 W · 243 L-17.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Murray State Racers48c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.261,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Murray State Racers41c36.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.091,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x974a…615cbacked Illinois State Redbirds58c34.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.482133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-32.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Murray State Racers45c32.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.541,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aea…4793backed Murray State Racers47c31.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fff…665bbacked Murray State Racers45c28.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131729.4%5 W · 12 L-4.1wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-44.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0c5a…9b3bbacked Murray State Racers44c27.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Illinois State Redbirds53c27.2$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7821646.8%101 W · 115 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3ac…1afdbacked Illinois State Redbirds56c26.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.796861.8%42 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Murray State Racers47c23.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8492246%424 W · 498 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Illinois State Redbirds66c20.7$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.941,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Illinois State Redbirds61c20.2$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.95,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.