Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Murray State Racers vs. Illinois State Redbirds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x918640d1b9535764b886e3fc482c50520d88e0e12dc75dad302b2d0dce0eedb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinois State Redbirdsof Murray State Racers, Illinois State Redbirds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Illinois State Redbirds | 55c | 10,876$5,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,936.6 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Murray State Racers | 44c | 7,544$3,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,357.08 | 302 | 49.3%149 W · 153 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Murray State Racers | 45c | 7,318$3,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,262.72 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…1e2abacked Illinois State Redbirds | 56c | 3,998$2,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,759.13 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d98…4d2dbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 59c | 2,144$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.43 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Illinois State Redbirds | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Murray State Racers | 45c | 1,378$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.97 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed Illinois State Redbirds | 55c | 1,129$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.9 | 349 | 43.3%151 W · 198 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Murray State Racers | 41c | 1,114$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.49 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…1080backed Murray State Racers | 43c | 894.99$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.84 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Illinois State Redbirds | 49c | 792.3$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.59 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Illinois State Redbirds | 54c | 768.1$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356 | 374 | 41.7%156 W · 218 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…09c4backed Murray State Racers | 47c | 686.09$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 55c | 609$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.05 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Illinois State Redbirds | 53c | 585$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.95 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Murray State Racers | 43c | 581.4$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Illinois State Redbirds | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Murray State Racers | 42c | 537.52$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.76 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked Illinois State Redbirds | 57c | 498.06$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.17 | 814 | 53.1%432 W · 382 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Murray State Racers | 45c | 438$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.1 | 138 | 40.6%56 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Murray State Racers | 45c | 430.38$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.67 | 423 | 39.2%166 W · 257 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Murray State Racers | 43c | 399.67$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.41 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Illinois State Redbirds | 58c | 392.77$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.37 | 379 | 47.8%181 W · 198 L | -26.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Murray State Racers | 47c | 382.98$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 55c | 320.61$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.27 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Murray State Racers | 42c | 300.31$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.48 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Murray State Racers | 44c | 294.2$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.55 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Illinois State Redbirds | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 934 | 47.9%447 W · 487 L | -19.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Murray State Racers | 50c | 262.01$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.01 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Murray State Racers | 51c | 259$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.09 | 722 | 48.8%352 W · 370 L | -23.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Murray State Racers | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Murray State Racers | 40c | 225$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 507 | 45.2%229 W · 278 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Murray State Racers | 43c | 212.76$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.49 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Murray State Racers | 51c | 208.64$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.01 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…7330backed Illinois State Redbirds | 49c | 203.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.16 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Murray State Racers | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Murray State Racers | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 247 | 37.7%93 W · 154 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Murray State Racers | 32c | 182.8$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 253 | 37.5%95 W · 158 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…85a2backed Illinois State Redbirds | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Murray State Racers | 39c | 160$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 932 | 47.3%441 W · 491 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Murray State Racers | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Murray State Racers | 47c | 142$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Murray State Racers | 19c | 127.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Murray State Racers | 44c | 112.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee7…6760backed Murray State Racers | 47c | 109.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Murray State Racers | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Illinois State Redbirds | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 383 | 51.7%198 W · 185 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Murray State Racers | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Murray State Racers | 42c | 88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Illinois State Redbirds | 63c | 86.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Murray State Racers | 32c | 64.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Murray State Racers | 44c | 61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 815 | 28.8%235 W · 580 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8f…1f83backed Illinois State Redbirds | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 646 | 58.8%380 W · 266 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Illinois State Redbirds | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked Murray State Racers | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…2e74backed Illinois State Redbirds | 57c | 58.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 198 | 60.1%119 W · 79 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Murray State Racers | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Murray State Racers | 49c | 49.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 390 | 50.5%197 W · 193 L | -34.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Murray State Racers | 46c | 46.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Murray State Racers | 45c | 43.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 990 | 45.6%451 W · 539 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Illinois State Redbirds | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…7a77backed Murray State Racers | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 523 | 53.5%280 W · 243 L | -17.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Murray State Racers | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Murray State Racers | 41c | 36.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974a…615cbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Murray State Racers | 45c | 32.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…4793backed Murray State Racers | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fff…665bbacked Murray State Racers | 45c | 28.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…9b3bbacked Murray State Racers | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 53c | 27.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 216 | 46.8%101 W · 115 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…1afdbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Murray State Racers | 47c | 23.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Illinois State Redbirds | 66c | 20.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Illinois State Redbirds | 61c | 20.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Murray State Racers vs. Illinois State Redbirdsthis page
- Murray State Racers vs. Illinois State Redbirds: O/U 156.5Under won
- Spread: Illinois State Redbirds (-1.5)Illinois State Redbirds won
- Spread: Illinois State Redbirds (-3.5)Illinois State Redbirds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.