Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Utah State Aggies (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e2c41e3c8aec37da685bb31d465458173dee3a903392e6d60de1c98ff3bc4ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Utah State Aggiesof Utah State Aggies, Boise State Broncos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Boise State Broncos | 50c | 2,222$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Utah State Aggies | 50c | 2,137$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.33 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Boise State Broncos | 48c | 290.33$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.93 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…5dfebacked Utah State Aggies | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked Utah State Aggies | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…8b6cbacked Boise State Broncos | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Utah State Aggies | 50c | 196.07$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…85a2backed Boise State Broncos | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc5…d36ebacked Boise State Broncos | 33c | 144.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -9.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Utah State Aggies | 67c | 144.21$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boise State Broncos | 51c | 137$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Utah State Aggies | 63c | 82.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Utah State Aggies | 50c | 80.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 139 | 56.8%79 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Utah State Aggies | 49c | 63.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Utah State Aggies | 49c | 62.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Utah State Aggies | 56c | 57.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Boise State Broncos | 39c | 41.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Utah State Aggies (-9.5)this page
- Boise State Broncos vs. Utah State AggiesUtah State Aggies won
- Boise State Broncos vs. Utah State Aggies: O/U 152.5Under won
- Spread: Utah State Aggies (-10.5)Utah State Aggies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.