TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$270,590
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$291,532

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $270,590 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Under48c193,999$93,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93,448.31947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over51c56,472$28,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,483.241,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over51c38,166$19,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,73316652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over52c20,493$10,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,800.7978248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Over51c12,000$6,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,8802962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Over54c10,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,6007062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3926…7e9ebacked Over51c8,500$4,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,165683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick49cpaid+68.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Over51c7,777$3,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,810.732365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over49c7,637$3,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,859.6810553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Over51c7,635$3,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,741.151764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under49c5,999$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,939.5133244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40056547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Under51c4,371$2,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,229.172867.9%19 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+29.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1a43…565fbacked Under50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick40cpaid-54.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Over50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0001353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over64c3,900$2,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,41711056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0748…a31ebacked Under49c3,851$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,900540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Over54c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3807057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Over54c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3806459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over52c2,941$1,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,417.733,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over53c2,652$1,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,243.8444749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over51c2,146$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.8314157.4%81 W · 60 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf46e…d15ebacked Under50c1,408$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over52c1,060$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.411,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f91…40adbacked Over50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+60.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over50c827.14$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.5730054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Over52c800$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38431145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over54c800$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3688764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over49c800$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.1835856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Under49c783$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.675729.8%17 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over51c730$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3581040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2db3…667abacked Over51c690.92$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.551266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over51c681.19$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.7816850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1ad…011fbacked Under51c660.78$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33730%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over53c640$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.812162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe706…89bcbacked Over32c615.03$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.2211843.2%51 W · 67 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over53c600$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2828461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Over54c600$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.345052%26 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Over51c600$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29420545.9%94 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over52c588$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.359459.6%56 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x00d4…0a6abacked Over49c510.18$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over47c506.01$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.952,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Over52c461.92$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.726558.5%38 W · 27 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+73.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over54c420$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.222854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over54c420$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.215454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Over54c420$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.28864.8%57 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked Over50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2002466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18424258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over53c400$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18813256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Under51c394.12$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc20…c5dbbacked Over50c360$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1802100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over53c340$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.812458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Over54c330$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.813957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Over54c330$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.814355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Over52c301.14$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.553268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Over54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13815453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05ba…ca40backed Over50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1502100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+135.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Over54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13811860.2%71 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Over53c300$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1416959.4%41 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Over54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13812858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc758…8574backed Over56c291.77$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.2612951.2%66 W · 63 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Over54c280$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.812757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5fe…b52dbacked Under8c275$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.75128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over54c250$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11525659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Over51c250$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.54141.5%17 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over41c244.02$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.028955.1%49 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd76…b935backed Over51c240$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.54254.8%23 W · 19 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+38.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Over52c219.51$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.38253.7%44 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x46af…1f6abacked Over53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Over54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9210855.6%60 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f65…cdd3backed Over53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942568%17 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f51…41edbacked Over51c197.65$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.856659.1%39 W · 27 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over53c197.1$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.9122829.4%67 W · 161 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Over54c190$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.49659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Over54c180$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.812356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Over54c170$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.211458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over54c170$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.26556.9%37 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Over54c170$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.213859.4%82 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Over54c170$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.211259.8%67 W · 45 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Over54c170$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.26460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Over54c170$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.212358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Over54c160$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.611563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Over54c150$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Over54c150$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6910360.2%62 W · 41 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe174…f74bbacked Over50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+186.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Over53c140$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.811661.2%71 W · 45 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x239b…f8bfbacked Over52c129$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.497452.7%39 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Over54c120$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.26460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Over54c120$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.212259%72 W · 50 L+11.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed Over53c120$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.45459.3%32 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Over54c120$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.26162.3%38 W · 23 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Over53c120$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.411759.8%70 W · 47 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Over53c120$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.46657.6%38 W · 28 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over54c120$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.212657.9%73 W · 53 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e57…2bf6backed Over50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Over54c120$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.26259.7%37 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Over54c120$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.213254.5%72 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Over54c120$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.29159.3%54 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over50c118.81$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.4137344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.