Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1b91a852d1b6862007d9ee9a32b2dac6d0756c6163669a80440d1925725c270
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 23c | 4,145$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.76 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 76c | 1,600$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Over | 70c | 1,500$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 21c | 947.17$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.09 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 25c | 602.5$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.63 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 15c | 380.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…597dbacked Over | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Over | 77c | 261.17$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Under | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 10c | 143.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 73c | 137.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…0872backed Over | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…6a66backed Over | 75c | 81.6$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 76c | 79.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…4aebbacked Over | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 73c | 62.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Under | 25c | 51.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Over | 68c | 44.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Under | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 68c | 36.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 68c | 36.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5this page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.