Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe994c905de474f62e84aff9fb4437d031234b4f935b227c4a6df9c0db832aabe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 39c | 3,257$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.17 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 55c | 755$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.75 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2358…8986backed Yes | 58c | 640.11$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 57c | 356.14$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.14 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed Yes | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 68c | 278.36$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.31 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Yes | 51c | 202.42$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.16 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Yes | 69c | 145.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ef…39b6backed Yes | 76c | 129$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 34c | 127.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 43c | 106.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…1483backed Yes | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Yes | 53c | 94.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked No | 42c | 83.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 58c | 83.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca61…f06abacked No | 43c | 79.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 44c | 62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…dfdabacked Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 44c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 65c | 28.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Yes | 57c | 25.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…ebecbacked Yes | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…47afbacked Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.