Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a22c7640b933813cfef1cd848633dd6e0efe03ab1cd0f61cf07075f0097e4d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 1c | 3,377$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +193.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 1,789$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.65 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…be5fbacked Under | 1c | 1,123$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 67c | 1,080$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.3 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 28c | 1,070$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.4 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Under | 68c | 706$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.08 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 607.54$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.89 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 30c | 600$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 48c | 520$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.4 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 71c | 514.33$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.67 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 31c | 500.82$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.26 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 32c | 399.98$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.99 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 29c | 378.94$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.05 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 33c | 284.35$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.35 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 55c | 265.45$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 29c | 206.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.89 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…e77bbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 25c | 103.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.54 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 44c | 97.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 50c | 88.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 68c | 78.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked Under | 72c | 51.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 62c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 58c | 26.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.