NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd969efacd3eb60574fa8b0b0ec587720d1e2892045e2b3a1aaa61658aed45730
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Hornets | 44c | 11,553$5,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,083.31 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Cavaliers | 56c | 6,274$3,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,791.21 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Hornets | 49c | 2,560$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.21 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets | 45c | 2,120$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.18 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 1,897$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.46 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…db9dbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.71 | 206 | 51.5%106 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…6dc8backed Cavaliers | 56c | 1,750$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 46c | 1,352$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.02 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 1,335$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.55 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Hornets | 45c | 1,086$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.6 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Cavaliers | 62c | 1,009$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.7 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 998.57$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.25 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Hornets | 44c | 816.5$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.26 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Cavaliers | 55c | 727$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.15 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec0…f7aabacked Hornets | 39c | 725.51$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.33 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Cavaliers | 57c | 625$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.83 | 412 | 27.4%113 W · 299 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 586.65$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.42 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed Cavaliers | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 184 | 56%103 W · 81 L | +16.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cavaliers | 55c | 500.54$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.55 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Cavaliers | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Hornets | 45c | 378.45$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.5 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Hornets | 44c | 327.54$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.12 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Hornets | 46c | 325.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.73 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 49c | 295.53$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.11 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Cavaliers | 56c | 268$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.92 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Hornets | 43c | 255.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.87 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Hornets | 36c | 205.56$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 146 | 36.3%53 W · 93 L | +16.4wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2646…ac99backed Cavaliers | 53c | 190.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Hornets | 40c | 189.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.03 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Cavaliers | 52c | 188.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.59 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Hornets | 49c | 185.18$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.81 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Cavaliers | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Hornets | 40c | 161.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Hornets | 44c | 159.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 558 | 46.8%261 W · 297 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Hornets | 46c | 145.3$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Hornets | 45c | 144.22$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…7057backed Cavaliers | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 182 | 56.6%103 W · 79 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Hornets | 45c | 138.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Hornets | 36c | 130.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…cd5fbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 110.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Hornets | 43c | 106.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Hornets | 47c | 100.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Cavaliers | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Cavaliers | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…2a73backed Cavaliers | 55c | 91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cavaliers | 56c | 85.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…fb66backed Cavaliers | 65c | 83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bca…05d8backed Cavaliers | 51c | 82.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hornets | 30c | 80.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…66acbacked Cavaliers | 59c | 70.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Cavaliers | 54c | 66.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Cavaliers | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 243 | 58%141 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Cavaliers | 63c | 50.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Hornets | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Hornets | 52c | 47.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dd…cea3backed Hornets | 46c | 46.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…4e7abacked Cavaliers | 61c | 45.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 189 | 57.1%108 W · 81 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Cavaliers | 46c | 45.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Hornets | 46c | 45.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hornets | 49c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Hornets | 47c | 43.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 179 | 60.9%109 W · 70 L | +17.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Hornets | 44c | 38.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Hornets | 46c | 36.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Cavaliers | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 225 | 56.9%128 W · 97 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…fe8bbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Cavaliers | 66c | 34.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Hornets | 46c | 31.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Hornets | 43c | 30.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…ada4backed Cavaliers | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f6…6d85backed Hornets | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…de71backed Hornets | 46c | 22.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd3…1c69backed Cavaliers | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed Cavaliers | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e41…ca06backed Cavaliers | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. HornetsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 20.5No won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Kon Knueppel: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.