NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x485f3d479b6baf31dbc134ae55ae902e458adcf475de4f609dbf5622df37ba1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777d…5143backed Over | 46c | 15,000$6,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,899.99 | 197 | 54.3%107 W · 90 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 54c | 7,184$3,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,302.62 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Under | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 54c | 3,878$2,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,779.39 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…cec3backed Over | 48c | 2,792$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.16 | 154 | 50.6%78 W · 76 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Under | 54c | 2,500$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Over | 48c | 2,088$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.24 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…e270backed Over | 41c | 1,793$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.22 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 59c | 1,621$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.76 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 1,429$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.21 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Over | 41c | 1,112$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 277 | 46.6%129 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 47c | 859$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.58 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 52c | 674$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.52 | 313 | 54.3%170 W · 143 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 62c | 548.39$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.39 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 56c | 518$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.2 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 57c | 355$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.69 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 45c | 287.16$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.6 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 58c | 280.4$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.66 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb568…14d4backed Over | 43c | 274.5$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.03 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -20.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 108.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 40c | 101.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 100.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 39c | 97.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 65c | 95.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 52c | 86.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…34d8backed Under | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 27c | 82.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 53c | 67.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 66.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…df74backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 59c | 52.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 40c | 46.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 47c | 46.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Over | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…ac93backed Under | 59c | 40.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 370 | 37.3%138 W · 232 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc208…e74fbacked Over | 48c | 33.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 56c | 32.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 55c | 30.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Over | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Over | 41c | 25.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 122 | 27%33 W · 89 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Over | 52c | 24.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd668…2235backed Under | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5674…ad22backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 59c | 19.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 765 | 52.9%405 W · 360 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. HornetsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 20.5No won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Kon Knueppel: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.