NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38dd92cff523c4fb0612671f8b6dc4878bc9e7cb6ec4f0396ce04bcfa4b5262f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 46c | 39,687$18,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,255.81 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 17,991$9,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,233.86 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Under | 54c | 16,853$9,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,752.38 | 518 | 44.4%230 W · 288 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 4,053$2,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,865 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 54c | 2,630$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.91 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 54c | 931.13$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.26 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 47c | 703.08$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.45 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 54c | 612.2$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.61 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b0…ea3bbacked Under | 53c | 580$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.6 | 151 | 54.3%82 W · 69 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 54c | 495.23$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.66 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 38c | 476.53$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.63 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 54c | 401.61$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.17 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 350$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.02 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 68c | 294.22$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.22 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 223.5$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.64 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 52c | 188.46$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.46 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 55c | 66.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 52c | 54.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…bdd4backed Over | 49c | 54.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1a…7ddebacked Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x819a…4b03backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 47c | 47.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 47c | 42.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Under | 54c | 39.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 58c | 38.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 45c | 34.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Over | 45c | 24.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 323 | 52.6%170 W · 153 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 50c | 21.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. HornetsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 20.5No won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Kon Knueppel: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.